Browsing by Author "Yükseltan, Ergün"
Now showing items 1-4 of 4
-
Forecasting electricity demand for Turkey: Modeling periodic variations and demand segregation
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(Elsevier, 2017)In deregulated electricity markets the independent system operator (ISO) oversees the power system and manages the supply and demand balancing process. In a typical day the ISO announces the electricity demand forecast for the next day and gives participants an option to prepare offers to meet the demand. In order to have a reliable power system and successful market operation it is crucial to estimate the electricity demand accurately. In this paper we develop an hourly demand forecasting method ...
-
Forecasting Models For Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations And Demand Segregation
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(Elsevier Ltd, 2020)Due to expensive infrastructure and the difficulties in storage, supply conditions of natural gas are different from those of other traditional energy sources like petroleum or coal. To overcome these challenges, supplier countries require take-or-pay agreements for requested natural gas quantities. These contracts have many pre-clauses; even if they are not met due to low/high consumption or other external factors, buyers must completely fulfill them. A similar contract is then imposed on ...
-
Hourly electricity demand forecasting using Fourier analysis with feedback
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(Elsevıer, 2020)Whether it be long-term, like year-ahead, or short-term, such as hour-ahead or day-ahead, forecasting of electricity demand is crucial for the success of deregulated electricity markets. The stochastic nature of the demand for electricity, along with parameters such as temperature, humidity, and work habits, eventually causes deviations from expected demand. In this paper, we propose a feedback-based forecasting methodology in which the hourly prediction by a Fourier series expansion is updated ...
-
Managing natural gas demand for free consumers under uncertainty and limited storage capacity
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(Elsevier, 2020)Demand for energy sources depends on several factors such as population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and climate. Among fundamental energy sources, natural gas is characterized by storage limitations and take-or-pay contracts, which makes it especially critical to forecast the demand accurately for cost management policies. Suppliers of natural gas require take-or-pay contracts to ensure that consumers pay for any unused amount up front; and if the demand exceeds the agreed amount, ...
