A new approach is provided in our paper for creating a strategic early warning system allowing the estimation of the future state of the milk market as scenarios. This is in line with the recent call from the EU commission for tools that help to better address such a highly volatile market. We applied different multivariate time series regression and Bayesian networks on a pre-determined map of relations between macro-economic indicators. The evaluation of our findings with root mean square error ...

This paper presents a new approach for developing a Strategic Early Warning System aiming to better detect and interpret weak signals. We chose the milk market as a case study in line with the recent call from the EU Commission for governance tools which help to better address such highly volatile markets. Furthermore on the first of April 2015 the new Common Agricultural Policy ended quotas for milk which led to a milk crisis in the EU. Thus we collaborated with milk experts to get their inputs ...