Finansal krizler ve erken uyarı sistemleri

Abstract

Bu calismada 1996:01-2009:11 donemleri arasi secilen gostergelerden yola cikarak robit ve logit olasilik modelleri kullanilarak Turkiye'de yasanan finansal krizlerin onceden tahmin edilebilirligi olgusu incelenmistir. Secilen degiskenlerden istatistiki olarak anlamli modeller elde edilmek suretiyle krizlerin tahmininde kullanilabilecek degiskenler tespit edilmeye calisilmistir. Ortaya konan model sonuclarindan en anlamli olabilecek model ortaya konmus ve bunun sonucunda aylik mevduat faizi brut rezervler ve ic borclanma degiskenlerinden olusan modelin en anlamli model oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir.

The predictability of financial crises in Turkey by the chosen indicators during 1996:01-2009:11 has been investigated by using probit and logit probability models.Statistically meaningful models have been achieved from the chosen indicators for the use of prediction of financial crises.The model which consists monthly deposit interest rate, gross reserves and domestic debt has been seen the best model in the case of predictability of crises.