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dc.contributor.authorAhmetolan, Semra
dc.contributor.authorBilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
dc.contributor.authorDemirci, Ali
dc.contributor.authorPeker-Dobie, Ayşe
dc.contributor.authorErgönül, Önder
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-30T14:16:16Z
dc.date.available2020-11-30T14:16:16Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.issn2296-858X
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.556366en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12469/3492
dc.description.abstractThe rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its spread. Since the earliest stages of this major pandemic, academics have done a huge amount of research in order to understand the disease, develop medication, vaccines and tests, and model its spread. Among these studies, a great deal of effort has been invested in the estimation of epidemic parameters in the early stage, for the countries affected by Covid-19, hence to predict the course of the epidemic but the variability of the controls over the course of the epidemic complicated the modeling processes. In this article, the determination of the basic reproduction number, the mean duration of the infectious period, the estimation of the timing of the peak of the epidemic wave is discussed using early phase data. Daily case reports and daily fatalities for China, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period January 22, 2020-April 18, 2020 are evaluated using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. For each country, the SIR models fitting cumulative infective case data within 5% error are analyzed. It is observed that the basic reproduction number and the mean duration of the infectious period can be estimated only in cases where the spread of the epidemic is over (for China and South Korea in the present case). Nevertheless, it is shown that the timing of the maximum and timings of the inflection points of the proportion of infected individuals can be robustly estimated from the normalized data. The validation of the estimates by comparing the predictions with actual data has shown that the predictions were realized for all countries except USA, as long as lock-down measures were retained.en_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherFrontıers Medıa Saen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectSIR modelen_US
dc.subjectParameter estimationen_US
dc.subjectMathematical modelsen_US
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.titleWhat Can We Estimate From Fatality and Infectious Case Data Using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) Model? A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemicen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.relation.journalFrontıers in Medıcıneen_US
dc.identifier.volume7en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000572507000001en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fmed.2020.556366en_US
dc.contributor.khasauthorBilge, Ayşe Hümeyraen_US
dc.contributor.khasauthorPeker-Dobie, Ayşeen_US


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