Advanced Search

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorYükseltan, Ergün
dc.contributor.authorYücekaya, Ahmet
dc.contributor.authorBilge, Ayşe Humeyra
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-30T14:29:53Z
dc.date.available2020-11-30T14:29:53Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.issn2211-467Xen_US
dc.identifier.issn2211-4688en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12469/3493
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100524
dc.description.abstractWhether it be long-term, like year-ahead, or short-term, such as hour-ahead or day-ahead, forecasting of electricity demand is crucial for the success of deregulated electricity markets. The stochastic nature of the demand for electricity, along with parameters such as temperature, humidity, and work habits, eventually causes deviations from expected demand. In this paper, we propose a feedback-based forecasting methodology in which the hourly prediction by a Fourier series expansion is updated by using the error at the current hour for the forecast at the next hour. The proposed methodology is applied to the Turkish power market for the period 2012-2017 and provides a powerful tool to forecasts the demand in hourly, daily and yearly horizons using only the past demand data. The hourly forecasting errors in the demand, in the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) norm, are 0.87% in hour-ahead, 2.90% in day-ahead, and 3.54% in year-ahead horizons, respectively. An autoregressive (AR) model is also applied to the predictions by the Fourier series expansion to obtain slightly better results. As predictions are updated on an hourly basis using the already realized data for the current hour, the model can be considered as reliable and practical in circumstances needed to make bidding and dispatching decisions.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipKadir Has Universityen_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherElsevıeren_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectTime series analysisen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectForecasten_US
dc.subjectFourier seriesen_US
dc.subjectModulationen_US
dc.subjectFeedbacken_US
dc.titleHourly electricity demand forecasting using Fourier analysis with feedbacken_US
dc.typearticleen_US
dc.relation.journalEnergy Strategy Revıewsen_US
dc.identifier.volume31en_US
dc.departmentFakülteler, Mühendislik ve Doğa Bilimleri Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000572977900001en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.esr.2020.100524en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85088146777en_US
dc.institutionauthorYükseltan, Ergünen_US
dc.institutionauthorYücekaya, Ahmeten_US
dc.institutionauthorBilge, Ayşe Hümeyraen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record