Browsing by Author "Koca, A."

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    Forecasting the Short-Term Electricity in Steel Manufacturing for Purchase Accuracy on Day-Ahead Market
    (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2022) Koca, A.; Erdem, Z.; Aydin, M.N.
    Forecasting electricity consumption in the most accurate way is crucial for purchase on the day-ahead market in steel manufacturing. This study is aimed to predict short-term electricity consumption regarding the day-ahead market purchase by employing important features of electricity consumption time-series data. We utilize Random Forest (RF), Gradient-Boosted Trees (GBT), and Generalized Linear Models (GLM), as they are appropriate for the given problem and widely used regression algorithms for prediction purposes. This study leverages the regression algorithms in the Apache Spark Machine Learning library. The performance of the prediction models is evaluated based on the standard deviation of the residuals (RMSE) and the proportion of variance explained (R-squared). We additionally discuss the distribution of prediction errors of the models. Experiments show that the RF model outperforms the GBT and GLM. It is considered that the results can contribute to accurate forecasting of short-term electricity demand for purchasing on the day-ahead. © 2022 IEEE.
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    Towards Better Energy Efficiency Through Coil-Based Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Steel Manufacturing
    (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2024) Koca, A.; Erdem, Z.; Dag, H.
    Forecasting electricity consumption with the possibly-highest accuracy is crucial for cost optimization, operational efficiency, competitiveness, contract negotiation, and achieving the global goals of sustainable development in steel manufacturing. This study focuses on identifying the most appropriate prediction algorithm for coil-based electricity consumption and the most effective implementation purposes in a steel company. Random Forest, Gradient-Boosted Trees, and Deep Neural Networks are preferred because they are suitable for the given problem and widely used for forecasting. The performance of the prediction models is evaluated based on the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R-squared). Experiments show that the Random Forest model outperforms the Gradient-Boosted Trees and Deep Neural Network models. The results will provide benefits for many different purposes. Firstly, during contract negotiations, it will enable us to gain a competitive advantage when purchasing electricity in the day-ahead market. Secondly, in the production scheduling phase, the ones with the highest electricity consumption will be produced during the hours when there is the least demand at the most affordable prices. Finally, when prioritizing sales orders, the use of the existing capacity for orders with lower energy intensity or a higher profit margin will be ensured. © 2024 IEEE.