Browsing by Author "Ucal, Meltem Şengün"

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Citation Count: 13
A Dynamic Game Theory Model for Tourism Supply Chains
(Sage Publications, 2021) Keskin, Kerim; Ucal, Meltem Şengün
This article contributes to the game-theoretic analysis of tourism supply chains. We start with a baseline model including three types of agents: (a) one theme park, (b) multiple accommodation providers, and (c) multiple tour operators. We investigate the strategic dynamics (i.e., collaboration and competition) embedded in a market with two different tourism supply chains, and then we extend our model to an infinite-horizon repeated game arguing that agents would face the same decision problem in each week of every holiday season in each year. We show how agents in a tourism supply chain end up with higher profits in any given period of a repeated game compared with their profits in the static version of the game.
Citation Count: 1
An Econometric Analysis of Imported Timber Demand in Turkey
(WFL PUBL, 2013) Kayacan, Bekir; Kara, Oğuz; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Bali, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, Erdem
This paper attempts to understand and explain determinants of Turkish demand for foreign timber imported to Turkey. Explanatory variables in the propounded model include price of imported timber price of domestically-produced sawlog as an imperfect substitute income per capita country population and capacity utilization rates (CUR's) and industrial production indices (IPI's) of forest industry sectors. For empirical purpose we used a time series data covering the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The econometric model set for there appears to be able to explain more than 96% of the variation in demand for imported timber with all of the parameter estimates except for population parameter being statistically significant. Estimation results confirm the existence of the price elasticity and substitute cross-price elasticity of demand for imported timber. Results also imply that the Turkish firms importing timber tend to consider domestic sawlog prices as much as even more than the price of foreign timber. The hypothesized effects of production changes in wood products and furniture industries on imported timber demand do not appear to be substantiated by this study which can partly be attributed to the partial method of measuring CUR's and IPI's. Meanwhile possible effects of income population and exchange rate index of the Turkish currency on the imported timber demand of the country are not evidenced by the empirical findings of this research. Finally our model forecasts ceteris paribus that by 2016 the level of Turkish demand for imported timber demand can reasonably be expected to exceed 2 million m(3)/year. This corresponds to the level of timber import observed in the years preceding the global economic crisis in 2009.
Citation Count: 1
Effects of Gender on Credit Card Usage Among University Students in Turkey
(Academic Journals, 2011) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; O'Neil, Mary Lou; Cankaya, Serkan
In recent years much has been written about credit card usage among university students. Despite a vast number of studies little has been written about credit card usage among university students in developing countries. This research surveyed university students in Turkey in an attempt to understand their uses of credit cards. In particular we examined the impact of gender on credit card use. The literature on the impact of gender on credit card usage is a bit unsettled and this study seeks to add another dimension to the research in this area. Using both parametric and nonparametric measures we sought to isolate gender and tested whether or not it affects the ways that young people in Turkey use credit cards. The importance of this research centers on the portrait it provides of credit card usage among young people in a developing country as well as to pointing the factors that may influence future credit card use.
Citation Count: 0
Electronic Money in 2000's
(Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2004) Ucal, Meltem Şengün
Para, dünya ekonomilerinin tümü için gerekli bir araçtır. Buna karşın elektronik para da gelişmiş ülkeler için gerekli bir araç haline gelmiştir. Günümüzde internet ortamı yolu ile yapılan finansal hizmetlerdeki muameleler için elektronik para ve elektronik ödeme sistemleri oldukça popülerdir. Elektronik sistemlerde meydana gelen bu değişmeler ekonomik ortamda gerçekleşen perakende satış ödemelerinde geleneksel işlemlerin yanında iki yeni formu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bunlar, bir kişisel bilgisayar ile evden veya işyerinden banka işlemleri yapmak ve elektronik nakit kullanımıdır. Söz konusu muameleler güvene dayalı gerçekleştirilir. Özellikle de teknolojilerin hızla değiştiği 2000’li yılları kat edeken, bu sistemde gerçekleşmesi gereken en önemli unsur elektronik paranın kanunlar çerçevesinde değerlendirilmesidir. Fakat Türkiye elektronik para sistemleri için henüz bir kanuni çerçeve çizmemiştir.
Citation Count: 2
Energy and Sustainable Development From Perspective of Energy Poverty
(Springer, 2021) Ucal, Meltem Şengün
End of poverty, the number one Sustainable Development Goal, focuses on ending all kinds of poverty all over the world. The elimination of all forms of poverty continues to be the biggest problem facing humanity today. The most important problems that have been encountered since the beginning of the energy use are the increasing risk of deterioration of energy supply, energy production and energy poverty. The problem of energy poverty among them is widely mentioned in the literature. In general, the studies on the subject focus on how the problem is defined worldwide, its size, its consequences, the obstacles to the elimination of the problem and some solution opportunities. The term “energy poverty” can refer to two different socio-economic issues, depending on the geographical scope of its application: energy affordability in higher income and developed states; inadequate access to “modern” energy services in most low income or developing countries”. Poor people pay a high price for the energy they use, either in cash or by labor. In addition, poor households spend more on energy than wealthy people, not only because their income is much smaller, but also because the fuels and equipment they use are much less efficient than modern fuels and equipment. No country has been able to diminish energy poverty to a great extent without increasing energy use. Decreasing the global inequality in energy is key to reducing income, gender and an inequality in other dimensions such as rural/urban income gaps. From this perspective, the importance of the relationship between energy poverty and sustainable development will be discussed by making comparisons by taking the country cases into consideration in the context of energy efficiency and renewable energy. The regional understanding of these concepts will also be discussed in this context.
Citation Count: 10
Energy-Saving Behavior of Turkish Women: a Consumer Survey on the Use of Home Appliances
(Sage Publications Ltd, 2017) Ucal, Meltem Şengün
This paper focuses on energy-related attitudes and behaviors of Turkish women who are the main users of electrical home appliances responsible for most household energy consumption. Answers from 1323 female respondents surveyed through a unique questionnaire formed the dataset. The results from analysis of variance show that education has a significant effect on the relationship between energy saving and awareness and attitudes about climate change. Significant differences also exist between education level groups in terms of knowledge of the classification of energy-saving electrical home appliances. Responses to questions related to energy-saving purchasing behaviors are consistently higher for knowledgeable respondents. The paper then uses factor analysis and ordinal logit models to reveal interactions between energy-saving behavior regarding electrical home appliances and several factors namely awareness sensitivity essentials and receptiveness. The identification of these factors can provide useful insights for policy makers that enable them to construct energy-saving policies specifically tailored toward women.
Citation Count: 11
Female Employment Status: a Survey Analysis of Selected Member States of the Arab League
(Springer Heidelberg, 2019) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Günay, Simge
Low female labor force participation is a conspicuous issue in the literature. Based on this information, women's perspectives of the determinants of female labor force participation in 13 member states of the Arab League in relation to the region's patriarchal culture and conservative social norms are discussed in this paper. Probit modelling is applied to the sixth wave of the World Values Survey data (2010-2014), in order to examine the relationship between female labor force participation and socio-cultural variables, such as women's perceptions about the importance of religion, the priority of religion compared with science, the importance of traditions for women, the priority of men concerning the right to a job and the importance of a job for women's independence, and personal characteristics, such as women's social class, marital status, number of children, educational level and age. The results indicate that the number of children and the importance given to tradition and religion by women are obstacles to increasing their labor force participation.
Citation Count: 13
Gender and the Wage Gap in Turkish Academia
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2015) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; O'Neil, Mary Lou; Toktaş, Şule
Turkey maintains one of the lowest female labour force participation rates in Europe but also boasts an above average number of female professors. Turkey is well above the European average (15 per cent) with approximately 28 per cent of full professorships being occupied by women. Despite these seemingly positive indications do men and women in Turkish academia earn the same wages? This study explores whether or not there exists a gendered pay gap in Turkish academia. Using data collected from a survey of more than 700 Turkish academics we observed that there is a gendered wage gap that disadvantages women but only at the highest pay levels found at private universities indicating the existence of intra-class inequality where men and women despite occupying the same class position are compensated differently.
Citation Count: 7
Household Happiness and Fuel Poverty: a Cross-Sectional Analysis on Turkey
(SPRINGER, 2021-01) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Günay, Simge
In recent years, self-reported happiness and fuel poverty have both become hotly-debated topics in the literature. Since both of them affect people's quality of life, they are certainly worth serious consideration. Therefore, this paper aims to conduct a household-level analysis on the association between happiness and fuel poverty taking advantage of other housing characteristics. We used ordered logit model utilizing Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT)'s 2014-2018 Life Satisfaction Survey (LSS) data for the analysis. Our dependent variable is household happiness. The results show that household fuel poverty is negatively associated with household happiness in Turkey. A positive association exists between becoming home-owner and household happiness in the country; however, it becomes mostly negative after considering odds ratios. On the other hand, there is a positive association between climbing income ladder and household happiness in the country. Also, the presence of men in households is found to be negatively associated with household happiness in Turkey. Our results imply a U-shaped association between age groups in households and household happiness in the country. Finally, we found that the association between an increase in household size and household happiness varies across each category of the independent variable. This is also the case for the association between number of rooms and household happiness as well as for the association between dwelling area and household happiness in Turkey.
Citation Count: 3
İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ SÜRECİNDE EKONOMİDEKİ YENİ KAVRAMLAR VE YAKLAŞIMLAR
(Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2017) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, Levent
İklim değişikliği günümüzde tüm dünya üzerinde etkili olmakla birlikte özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde bölgesel bazda daha önemli etkilere sahip, gelecekte de ekosistem hizmetleri aracılığıyla insanlığı ciddi şekilde tehdit etme potansiyeli bulunan küresel bir sorundur. İklim değişikliğine büyük ölçüde insan aktivitelerinin yol açtığı düşünüldüğünde, iklim değişikliğinde ekonomik aktivitelerin rolünün tartışılmaz olduğu açıktır. Küresel nüfus artışına bağlı olarak ekonomik aktivitelerde de artış yaşanacağı ifade edilmektedir. Özellikle büyüme odaklı ekonomilerde ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması yönünde gerçekleştirilen ve nüfus artışıyla birlikte daha da artacağı düşünülen ekonomik aktivitelere bağlı fosil yakıt tüketimi ve arazi kullanımı değişikliği sonucu atmosferdeki sera gazı konsantrasyonu artmaktadır ve gelecek birkaç on yılda çok daha artması beklenmektedir. Ekonomik büyümenin istikrarlı bir şekilde devam ettirilebilmesi paralelinde doğal kaynakların sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması da büyük önem taşımaktadır. Ekonomik büyümenin hız kesmeden devam edeceğini varsaydığımızda çevresel sınırlamaların varlığını da dikkate almamız ve kaynakları sürdürülebilir hale getirmemiz gerekmektedir. Sürdürülebilir bir kaynak kullanımı da ancak kaynak kullanımının ekonomik büyümeden ayrıklaştırılması yoluyla mümkün görünmektedir ve bu kavram küresel kaynak akışı paralelinde dikkat edilmesi gereken bir kavram olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Çalışmamız bu temel üzerine kurulmuştur. Makale, ayrıklaştırmanın önemini vurgulamakta ve ayrıklaştırmayı her yönüyle ele almaktadır. Ayrıklaştırmanın nasıl ölçüldüğü ve ayrıklaştırma sürecinin nasıl izlenmesi gerektiği incelenerek, ayrıklaştırma açısından gelişmiş ülke ve gelişmekte olan ülke farklılıkları ve iklim değişikliği kapsamında ayrıklaştırma süreci değerlendirilmiştir.
Citation Count: 28
Income Inequality and Fdi: Evidence With Turkish Data
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2016) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Haug, Alfred Albert; Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin
This article explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) and other determinants impact income inequality in Turkey in the short- and long-run. We apply the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling approach which is suitable for small samples. The data for the study cover the years from 1970 to 2008. The empirical results indicate the existence of a co-integration relationship among the variables with asymmetric adjustment of the income distribution in the short- and long-run. The negative impact of FDI on the Gini coefficient decreasing income inequality is statistically significant in the short- and long-run though with a quantitatively small impact in both cases. In the short run GDP growth increases inequality initially an effect that is reversed in the next period increases in domestic gross capital formation decreases inequality and increases in the literacy rate have very minor adverse effects on income equality. However in the long run these variables have no statistically significant effects on the Gini coefficient. A reduction in the population growth rate reduces inequality in the short run but has no effect in the long run whereas an increase in the rate reduces inequality in the long run but has no effect in the short run.
Citation Count: 0
Inflation Targeting Framework: Leading Indicator Variables of Inflation in Turkey
(Çukurova Üniv. Sosyal Bil. Enst., 2005) Alıcı, Aslı; Ucal, Meltem Şengün
Türkiye’de esnek döviz kuru uygulamasına geçilmesinin ardından, para politikasının ne şekilde uygulanacağı sorusu önemini korumaktadır. Yeni bir para politikası uygulaması olarak enflasyon hedeflemesine geçilmesi diğer bir ifade ile nominal çapa olarak belirlenen enflasyon hedefinin kullanılması, uygulamada güvenirlik derecesi yüksek enflasyon tahmin modellerinin oluşturulmasını gerektirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki enflasyon olgusuna ilişkin gösterge değişkenlerin saptanmasına yöneliktir. Enflasyon hedeflemesine geçilebilmesi için gerekli ön koşulların ortaya konulmasının ardından, enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici (gösterge niteliğinde) olan değişkenler, VAR analiziyle belirlenmiştir. VAR modeline karşı yapılan eleştirilere rağmen enflasyon modellemesi için VAR analizinin seçilmesinde, bu analiz tekniğinin yapısal model üzerinde herhangi bir kısıtlama gerektirmeksizin dinamik ilişkileri verebilmesi ve hangi değişkenin içsel hangi değişkenin dışsal olduğuna karar verme zorluğunun yaşanmamasıdır. Enflasyon hedefinin geleceğe yönelik olmasından dolayı tahmin modellerinde ileriye dönük belirleyici nitelikteki değişkenlere büyük ağırlık verilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, çalışma diğer politika araçları ve geliştirilecek yeni enflasyon serileri ile genişletilebilecek belirleyici göstergeler bazında bir ön model çalışması olarak değerlendirilmelidir.
Citation Count: 5
Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Turkey?
(M.E Sharpe Inc., 2010) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Alici, Asli
The issue of the budget deficit has become one of the main themes of the economic policy implemented in Turkey and backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the economic crisis of 2001. The main motivation for this study is the question of whether or not the government's financial policy is sustainable and satisfies the government's long-term budget constraint. The empirical analysis is based on tests of whether government expenditure and revenue are cointegrated considering the economic liberalization period of 1989-2008. The stability of fiscal policy is examined using the Johansen multivariate cointegration method. The findings of the sustainability tests indicate that fiscal policy from the liberalization of the economy up until the 2001 economic crisis was not sustainable.
Citation Count: 3
Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Industrial Roundwood in Turkey: a Primary Econometric Approach
(Wfl Publ, 2012) Kayacan, Bekir; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Bali, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, Erdem
This study is a primary econometric analysis to explore the factors explaining the changes in industrial roundwood demand in Turkey. The study also includes demand forecasts based on the econometric models proposed herein. We constructed two separate econometric models: one for national demand for domestically-produced saw log, and the other for national demand for domestically-produced non-sawlog industrial roundwood. Models were originally designed in multiplicative form. The original models are then converted into the log-linear form so that the relevant coefficients of the regression equations would immediately reflect the elasticities. Estimation of the model parameters are based on a panel data set of fifteen years (1995-2009) by twenty seven regional forest directorates in the country. In accordance with the maxim of less than the half of the 15 years period of data set, the demand forecasts are made for seven years beyond 2009. In view of the results, the explanatory power of the proposed models can arguably be deemed satisfactory especially considering the lack of earlier studies of this scale and scope. This consequently increases the credibility of the demand projections. Notwithstanding signs of the estimated parameters of the models are for the most part congruent with those expected in light of the economic theory and practice, some intriguing results are obtained. Perhaps most notably, while the sign of the estimated price elasticity of sawlog demand occurred unexpectedly positive, the variation in sawlog demand is explained to a considerable extent by the variation in the price of imported sawlog, hence an expected cross elasticity. Also notable is that the price of imported "fuelwood" holds a positive relationship with the national demand for domestic non-sawlog imdustrial roundwood, which is an expected cross elasticity since virtually all of the imported "fuelwood" is used as raw material for industry (e.g. chip and fiberboard industry). Finally, both models suggest overall boost in demand: yet an upper bound of 4.5 million m(3) for national demand for domestically-produced sawlog, and of 15 million m(3) for national demand for domestically-produced non-sawlog industrial roundwood can be expected by 2016.
Citation Count: 53
Multidirectional Relationship Between Energy Resources, Climate Changes and Sustainable Development: Technoeconomic Analysis
(Elsevier, 2020) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Xydis, George
Global changes in temperature will likely change energy use and electricity production capacity. Considering the relationship between climate change and energy resource use, changes in temperature and the frequency and intensity of extreme events will affect how much energy is produced and consumed. The green economy and green growth are located at the heart of the fight against climate change in creating sustainable development. This paper considers the multidirectional relations between climate change, energy resources, and sustainable development including the perspective of a green economy via a technoeconomic analysis. A link among energy resources, climate changes and sustainable development has been displayed via a technoeconomic analysis in the case study, which was focused on taking into consideration the needs of the hydroponic units, the product selling price, the electricity price of the wind farm (WF), and at the same time the energy demand, under a nexus approach. Via the technoeconomic analysis, it was proven that moving on to smaller investments of 2 MWs is more efficient compared to larger projects e.g. 18 MWs, however, this cannot be considered immediately as the preferred solution since it is always a matter of impact on the local society.
Citation Count: 35
Panel Data Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment and Poverty From the Perspective of Developing Countries
(Elsevier Science, 2014) Ucal, Meltem Şengün
The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and poverty at the macro-pathway in selected developing countries. The contribution to host countries from FDI can take several forms such as the transfer of technology human capital development increased competition in domestic markets and the generation of corporate tax revenues among others. The paper develops a data set and an econometric model to analyse FDI flows and poverty relations at the macro level panel data set. Results show that there is statistically significant relationship between FDI and poverty and it is obvious that FDI reduces poverty in selected developing countries. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer review under responsibility of Organizing Committee of BEM 2013.
Citation Count: 0
Parametric Bootstrap Model Selection Criterion With in Linear Model Compared To Other Criteria
(INT INST Informatics & Systemics, 2005) Ucal, Meltem Şengün
The most important stage of econometrics estimation is the in model set up. The model set up has the best prediction ability and is therefore suitable for econometrics estimation. Between the dependent variable Y and other independent explanatory variables X must be a strong relationship in econometrics estimation. However all explanatory variables cannot be related to dependent variable Y. This condition creates a regression problem. A similar problem appears in variable selection equivalent to problem in model selection. The most suitable faultless model is provided by correct and suitable selection of variables. There exist many variable/model selection procedures the where the necessary relationship between X and Y is linear
Citation Count: 3
Perceived Happiness, Perceived Trust and Perceived Income Levels: the Case of the Reunified Germany
(Savez Ekonomista Vojvodine, 2019) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Günay, Simge
This study explored the possible impact of perceived income on individual (perceived) happiness in Eastern and Western Germany in relation to perceived trust and four socio-economic variables, namely gender, age, marital status and employment status. To examine the relationship between these variables, a generalized ordered logit model was applied using the World Values Survey data. Bootstrapping and marginal effects were used to obtain a more robust model. The findings provided insights regarding the impact of perceived income and perceived trust on individual (perceived) happiness in both regions after reunification. Perceived income had a positive effect on all happiness categories in both regions. Perceived trust had a stronger positive impact on individual happiness than that of perceived income, although its significance varied across individual (perceived) happiness categories. Analysis of marginal effects revealed differences between the base models.
Citation Count: 42
The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy
(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2011) Görener, Aylin; Ucal, Meltem Şengün
Recep Tayyip Erdog. an is clearly the most controversial figure in recent Turkish political history. His preponderance in political life is remarkable even by Turkish standards. Because Erdog. an is so powerful and has effectively weakened most internal checks on his power any attempt to explain Turkey's recent foreign policy outcomes will be seriously lacking without considering his leadership impact. The purpose of this study is to investigate Erdog. an's worldview and leadership style and evaluate their impact on his government's policy processes and outputs. To do that we employ the Leadership Trait Analysis technique to construct the leadership profile of Erdog. an through content analysis of his verbal records while in office. We contend here that our understanding of AKP-era Turkey is enhanced if we offer a systematic and rigorous account of Erdogan's personality and that he presents a clear example of the importance of taking individual-level variables seriously in foreign policy analysis.
Citation Count: 2
A Primary Econometric Approach To Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Fuelwood in Turkey
(Wfl Publ, 2012) Kayacan, Bekir; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Bali, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, Erdem
A primary econometric approach is presented to understand the determinants of variation in national demand for domestically-produced fuelwood in Turkey. Also included in this study is a demand forecast for fuelwood based upon the econometric model proposed in this study. Being in multiplicative form originally, the proposed model is converted in to a double-log or log-linear form, for the ease of immediate interpretation of the parameter estimates in respect of elasticities. Parameter estimation is based on a panel and time series data set that belongs to the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The demand forecast presented has a horizon of 7 years beyond 2009. Major findings of the research include: 1) fuelwood demand in Turkey appears to conform to the law of demand with an inverse price-demand relationship; 2) fuelwood demand is notably price-sensitive with relatively high price elasticity; 3) fuelwood does not appear to be a related (complementary or substitute) good with coal and natural gas; and 4) fuelwood in Turkey is likely to be a "normal good" in respect of demand-income relationship. Meanwhile, based upon the proposed model here, fuelwood demand in Turkey may reasonably continue to show a downward trend till a level of 5 million m(3) per annum, which is an about 50% reduction from the demand level in 1995. Further research is particularly needed for Turkey in view of the rapidly changing socio-economic profile of rural and urban population, which is being reflected in the demand for energy from wood in forms besides wood in the raw.