Browsing by Subject "Forecasting"
Now showing items 1-5 of 5
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A Bayesian approach to developing a strategic early warning system for the French milk market
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(HALMSTAD UNIV SWEDEN, 2017)A new approach is provided in our paper for creating a strategic early warning system allowing the estimation of the future state of the milk market as scenarios. This is in line with the recent call from the EU commission for tools that help to better address such a highly volatile market. We applied different multivariate time series regression and Bayesian networks on a pre-determined map of relations between macro-economic indicators. The evaluation of our findings with root mean square error ...
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Bayesian and Graph Theory Approaches to Develop Strategic Early Warning Systems for the Milk Market
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(Springer-Verlag Berlin, 2015)This paper presents frameworks for developing a Strategic Early Warning System allowing the estimatation of the future state of the milk market. Thus this research is in line with the recent call from the EU commission for tools which help to better address such a highly volatile market. We applied different multivariate time series regression and Bayesian networks on a pre-determined map of relations between macro economic indicators. The evaluation of our findings with root mean square error ...
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A Bayesian approach to developing a strategic early warning system for the French milk market
Authors:
Publisher and Date:(Halmstad University, 2017)A new approach is provided in our paper for creating a strategic early warning system allowing the estimation of the future state of the milk market as scenarios. This is in line with the recent call from the EU commission for tools that help to better address such a highly volatile market. We applied different multivariate time series regression and Bayesian networks on a pre-determined map of relations between macro-economic indicators. The evaluation of our findings with root mean square error ...
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Forecasting Models For Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations And Demand Segregation
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Publisher and Date:(Elsevier Ltd, 2020)Due to expensive infrastructure and the difficulties in storage, supply conditions of natural gas are different from those of other traditional energy sources like petroleum or coal. To overcome these challenges, supplier countries require take-or-pay agreements for requested natural gas quantities. These contracts have many pre-clauses; even if they are not met due to low/high consumption or other external factors, buyers must completely fulfill them. A similar contract is then imposed on ...
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Managing natural gas demand for free consumers under uncertainty and limited storage capacity
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Publisher and Date:(Elsevier, 2020)Demand for energy sources depends on several factors such as population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and climate. Among fundamental energy sources, natural gas is characterized by storage limitations and take-or-pay contracts, which makes it especially critical to forecast the demand accurately for cost management policies. Suppliers of natural gas require take-or-pay contracts to ensure that consumers pay for any unused amount up front; and if the demand exceeds the agreed amount, ...
