Tez Koleksiyonu

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Browsing Tez Koleksiyonu by Department "Enstitüler, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Enerji Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı"

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    Master Thesis
    Electricty demand and supply scenario analysis for nigeria using long range energy alternatives planning
    (Kadir Has Üniversitesi, 2017) Kirkil, Gökhan; Kirkil, Gökhan
    Electricity demand and supply forecasts are very important tools for determining solutions to the problems in the electricity sector such as power outages. The Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) energy model was used for this study because of its low data requirements. The forecast for electricity demand and supply for Nigeria was carried out from 2010-2040. Three scenarios were generated which include Business as Usual (BAU) Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). The three scenarios were analyzed based on their electricity demand and supplies environmental impact and costs. The BAU scenario assumed that trends in the future will follow past trends. The EC scenario was generated based on efficient usage of electricity and reduction of transmission and distribution losses. in the EC scenario efficient electrical appliances will phase out the non-efficient ones which reduced the electricity demand significantly. On the other hand the REN scenario is based on the concept of harnessing renewable energy resources such as wind solar hydro and biomass for electricity generation. Results of the cost analysis of the three scenarios shows that the most competitive scenario in terms of cost is the EC scenario which has the least capital cost (44.2 billion USD less than the BAU scenario) and fixed costs (15 billion USD less than the BAU scenario) of the three scenarios but has the second largest quantity of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions of 1004.8 million tons of CO2eq. The REN scenario has the least GHG emissions among the three scenarios at 114.79 million tons of CO2eq but is the most expensive scenario to implement because of its high capital (56.3 billion USD more the BAU) and fixed costs (4.1 billion USD more than the BAU scenario). The EC scenario has 28.96 % less carbon emissions than the BAU scenario (1414.5 million tons of CO2eq) and has the least cost among the three scenarios. As a result of the current economic challenge faced by Nigeria and a growing electricity demand the EC scenario is the most realistic and suitable scenario to be implemented among the scenarios that were generated.