Enerji Sistemleri Mühendisliği Bölümü Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://gcris.khas.edu.tr/handle/20.500.12469/49

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Citation Count: 4
THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL GAME IN THE CASPIAN REGION: AZERBAIJAN-TURKEY ENERGY RELATIONS
(Turkish Policy Quarterly, 2016) Ediger, Volkan S.; Durmaz, Duygu
The Caspian Basin has been one of the most important geopolitical scenes since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The historical development of the basin in the last decade and a half provides us with some important clues about the dynamics of the new energy geopolitics. This article aims to examine geopolitical events that have occurred in connection with the hydrocarbon riches of the basin from a historical perspective. The focus of the article is mainly on the energy upstream and midstream projects developed between Turkey and the Caspian states, especially Azerbaijan. These significant events are investigated as part of nine "game" concepts. After examining these games thoroughly, the winners are listed according to their degrees with a discussion of results and possible conclusions.
Citation Count: 2
Geopolitics and gas-transit security through pipelines
(Springer International Publishing, 2020) Aydın, Mustafa; Bowlus, John V.; Aydın, Mustafa
Hydrocarbons are valuable only if they can be transited from where they are produced to where they are consumed. Despite the enduring importance of transit to the global energy system, the topic did not begin to be extensively analyzed until contentious relations between Russia and Ukraine disrupted natural gas flows to Europe in 2006. This chapter examines the geopolitics and security of transiting gas through pipelines by exploring the connection between geography, global energy strategies, and natural gas markets. Gas has grown in recent years as a percentage of global energy consumption and is helping the world transition to a cleaner energy regime. At the same time, it is intensifying the contest for and control of gas-transit routes. Russia, the world’s second-largest producer, has built new pipelines to Europe since 2006 in order to diversify its flow from relying on Ukraine, while the USA, the world’s largest gas producer, is increasingly exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) through sea routes mostly controlled by the US navy. We argue that geostrategic calculations will more profoundly affect gas transit in the future and that countries that rely solely on market or commercial factors for their gas-transit security will become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical volatility.
Citation Count: 69
An integrated review and analysis of multi-energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2019) Ediger, Volkan S.
We are in the midst of a transition from a fossil fuel-dominated energy regime to a more sustainable lower-carbon one in which natural gas is a bridge fuel. Since the 1970s oil crises, however, the forecasts for gas and coal have changed three times. Gas is currently achieving a major position in the world's energy mix but under challenging geopolitical forces; for this reason, different countries will follow different paths for adopting gas. This article uses a ternary diagram to shows that the fossil fuel consumption paths of the powers have greatly diverged over time. The close relationship between world hegemony and the dominant energy source (coal and then oil) in the past will be replaced by a multi-energy transition in which different countries choose different energy regimes in a multipolar international system. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Citation Count: 9
Greasing the wheels: the Berlin-Baghdad railway and Ottoman oil, 1888?1907
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Ediger, Volkan S.; Bowlus, John V.
In the 1880s, Germany cultivated an alliance with the Ottoman Empire that led to a concession to build one of history?s most storied, diplomatically contentious, and financially challenging infrastructure projects: the Berlin-Baghdad Railroad. While Germany had many goals in pursuing the project, oil was the only way to make the railroad economic. Drawing on Ottoman archival sources, this article examines the policies and strategies of Sultan Abd?lhamid II in relation to Germany?s attempt to develop Mesopotamian oil from German Emperor Wilhelm II?s visit to Istanbul in 1889 to the conclusion of Germany?s oil concession in 1906/7. It argues that Hamid pursued a pragmatic policy to develop and protect Ottoman oil from being dominated by the powers, especially the British Empire, and, in the process, seeks to reorient our understanding of great power interest in Middle East oil.
Citation Count: 0
Levant’ta büyük oyun: Doğu Akdeniz’in enerji jeopolitiği
(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği İktisadi İşletmesi, 2012) Ediger, Volkan S.
Levant Bölgesi’ndeki ticaret sisteminden başlayarak bölgenin hidrokarbon jeopolitiğine geçiş sürecine kadar uzanan tarihsel gelişimin uzun erimli (longue dureé) bakış açısıyla incelendiği bu çalışmada, bölgenin günümüzdeki durumu, petrol ve doğal gazın arama, üretim ve ihracı konusunda özellikle 2000’li yıllardan bu yana yaşanan gelişmelerle değerlendirilmiştir. Bölgenin hidrokarbon jeopolitiğindeki çatışma ve iş birliğinin sabit ve değişen boyutlarına, uluslararası ilişkilerin güç politikaları ve güçler dengesi gibi kavramları çerçevesinde özel bir yer verilmiştir. Bu çalışma sonunda test edilerek doğrulanan iki temel hipotezden bir tanesi, zaman içinde ticaretten enerjiye evrimleşen Levant jeopolitiğinin, küresel başat güç ve uluslararası devletler sistemindeki güç dengeleri için önemini uzun tarihi boyunca koruduğudur. Buna bağlı olarak geliştirilen ikinci hipotez de, Levant jeopolitiğinin kontrolünün başat gücün elinde olduğu zamanlarda bölgesel ve küresel çaptaki barış ve istikrarın arttığıdır. Güç dengelerindeki kaymalardan ötürü Levant’taki jeopolitik kontrol tek bir gücün elinden çıkmaya başladığı zamanlarda çatışmalar artmakta, iş birlikleri azalmaktadır. Doğu Akdeniz’in enerji konusunda günümüzde karşı karşıya kaldığı tehdit ve fırsatların incelenmesinin ardından bölgedeki çatışma ve iş birliği olanakları konusunda çıkarımlar yapılarak, bölgesel aktörlerin temel stratejileri değerlendirilmiştir. Levant’ta öne çıkan yeni enerji jeopolitiğinin bölgenin önemli bir gücü olan Türkiye için oluşturacağı tehdit ve fırsatlar tartışılmıştır.
Enerji Jeopolitiğinin Uluslararası İklim Değişikliği Girişimleri Üzerindeki Etkisi
(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği İktisadi İşletmesi, 2017) Ediger, Volkan S.
Genel olarak iklim değişikliği girişimleri ile enerji jeopolitiği arasındaki ilişkinin analiz edildiği bu makalede, başta petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar olmak üzere, enerji jeopolitiğindeki gelişmeler, 1965-2014 arasında enerji jeopolitiğinin şiddetlendiği ve durağanlaştığı dönemlere ayrılarak, tarihsel bakış açısıyla incelenmiştir. Özel olarak, Kyoto Protokolü gibi iklim değişikliğinin önlenmesi konusunda yükümlülük getirmesi bakımından önemli bir anlaşma olarak kabul edilen uluslararası girişimlerin neden yeterince başarılı olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Kyoto Protokolü özelinde başarısızlığın üç temel nedeni bulunmaktadır. Bunlardan birincisi ve en önemlisi dünya genelinde enerji jeopolitiğinin şiddetleniyor olmasıdır. İkinci neden ülkelerin farklı enerji ihtiyaçları ve farklı yerli enerji kaynaklarının bulunması, üçüncüsü de uygulamalarda devlet ve özel sektörün rolünün yeterince belirgin olmamasıdır. Yazar, iklim değişikliği konusundaki genel başarısızlığın başlıca nedenini enerji jeopolitiğindeki gelişmelere bağlamakta ve petrol krizleriyle somutlaşan küresel enerji politiğindeki mücadele dönemlerinin, iklim değişikliği gibi konulardaki uluslararası girişimlerin başarı şansını azalttığını savunmaktadır.
Citation Count: 1
Perception, petroleum, and power: Mythmaking in oil-scarce Turkey and Jordan
(Elsevier, 2020) Selen, Eser; Selen, Eser; Bowlus, John V.
Oil has been a cardinal driver of economic growth and national development in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. States that produce oil in globally exportable quantities tend to be more powerful than those that do not. Oil-scarce states in the Middle East that neighbor oil-rich states and rely on them for imports create myths to explain their relatively unfortunate geology. This study illustrates and analyzes the myths that people in Turkey and Jordan have created to explain why they lack oil. In the process, it also explains the attitudes, beliefs, and social norms within these countries regarding oil. In both Turkey and Jordan, public understanding of why the country lacks oil forms a tautology about the relationship between oil and the nation's wealth and development, as well as its political, economic, and military power.
Citation Count: 1
Introduction: Energy economics finance and geostrategy
(Springer International Publishing, 2018) Dorsman, Andre B.; Ediger, Volkan S.; Karan, Mehmet Baha
Since countries’ economic independence is based on energy security decisions on energy economy and financing are assessed mainly by geostrategic considerations. Economically optimal decisions are not enough regarding geostrategy. This situation makes it difficult to make decisions in energy markets and it creates considerable controversy. The role of financial markets is to measure the risk of this complex structure or energy projects and price them in financial basis. Understanding behavior of energy markets it is necessary to look at them on an event basis. The limited availability and unequal distribution of energy sources and different pricing and cost mechanism of energy supplies are hardening to arrive a simple solution. Therefore the research articles of this book are aimed to open new perspectives for the reader and researchers. © Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature 2018.
Citation Count: 7
Geostrategic challenges in the oil and gas sectors
(Springer International Publishing, 2018) Ediger, Volkan S.; Berk, Istemi
This chapter identifies the major geostrategic challenges that have emerged during the last two decades and assesses their implications for the global oil and gas sectors. The historical development of oil prices shows that there have been two major periods of volatility 1973-1986 and 1998-present each of which was preceded by two relatively stable periods. The two oil price shocks of the 1970s that were triggered by geopolitical events had long-term effects on global politics and economics. Major oil and gas producers faced the challenges of declining consumption on the demand side as consumers turned to alternative energies energy efficiency improved and non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil supplies increased. The crisis in the 2000s on the other hand had similar but more intense consequences deeply altering the structure of oil and gas markets. We identify two major challenges facing the oil and gas industry: energy substitution and resource scarcity. While the substitution of coal and renewables threatens to reduce oil and gas demand resource scarcity is expected to promote the development of unconventional hydrocarbon resources such as shale oil and gas and heavy oil. Unlike in the 1970s oil consumption did not decline when oil prices peaked in the 2000s. Moreover the recent fall in oil and gas prices created a fiscal challenge for conventional producers such as OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries like Russia and Mexico whose governmental budgets depend on export revenues. These fiscal challenges are expected to increase competition between national oil companies (NOCs) and international oil companies (IOCs) necessitating structural change in the governance of the industry. The NOCs are expected to continue dominating the industry and due to the increasing intervention of the corresponding governments the next decades could experience a rise in state capitalism not only in major oil and gas producing countries but also in the global energy business. © Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature 2018.
Citation Count: 56
Transition and equilibration of neutral atmospheric boundary layer flow in one-way nested large-eddy simulations using the weather research and forecasting model
(2013) Kirkil, Gökhan; Kirkil, Gökhan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Chow, Fotini Katopodes; Kosovic, Branko
The Weather Research and Forecasting Model permits finescale large-eddy simulations (LES) to be nested within coarser simulations an approach that can generatemore accurate turbulence statistics and improve other aspects of simulated flows.However errors are introduced into the finer domain fromthe nestingmethodology. Comparing nested domain flat-terrain simulations of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer with singledomain simulations using the same mesh but instead using periodic lateral boundary conditions reveals the errors contributed to the nested solution from the parent domain and nest interfaces. Comparison of velocity spectra shows good agreement among higher frequencies but greater power predicted on the nested domain at lower frequencies. Profiles of meanwind speed show significant near-surface deficits near the inflowboundaries but equilibrate to improved values with distance. Profiles of the vertical flux of x momentum show significant underprediction by the nested domain close to the surface and near the inlet boundaries. While these underpredictions of the stresses which cause the near-surface velocity deficits attenuate with distance within the nested domains significant errors remain throughout. Profiles of the resolved turbulence kinetic energy show considerable deviations from their single-domain values throughout the nested domains. The authors examine the accuracy of these parameters and their sensitivities to the turbulence subfilter stress model mesh resolution and grid aspect ratio and provide guidance to practitioners of nested LES. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
Citation Count: 0
Geopolitics of oil & gas
(Energy Institute, 2014) Ediger, Volkan S.
[Abstract Not Available]
Citation Count: 15
A historical assessment of Turkey's natural gas import vulnerability
(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2018) Berk, Istemi; Ediger, Volkan S.; Ediger, Volkan S.
This article aims at evaluating the historical determinants and implications of Turkey's natural gas import dependency. We implement principle component analysis (PCA) methodology to construct a natural gas import vulnerability index (NGIVI) for the period between 1986 and 2014 using five factors: (1) the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption (2) the share of natural gas in primary energy imports (3) the non-diversification of natural gas import sources (4) the share of LNG in total natural gas imports and (5) natural gas import prices. Results reveal that the first two factors have always dominated the NGIVI while the others were consequential but different times. Turkey's NOM increased until 2008 when it peaked and remained relatively flat since then indicating neither an improvement nor a worsening in its vulnerability. We also compared the NGIVI with the oil import vulnerability index (OIVI) of Turkey constructed in 2011 by the authors. Although there has been a remarkable decline in the OIVI since the mid-1980s the NGIVI has remained high until the present day. This result could be attributed to Turkey's different historical experience in importing oil and natural gas. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 14
A Farewell to King Coal: Geopolitics, Energy Security, and the Transition to Oil, 1898–1917
(Cambridge Univ Press, 2019) Ediger, Volkan S.; Bowlus, John V.
Interest in energy transitions has accelerated in recent years due to rising concerns about global warming and resource scarcity but the drivers of these phenomena are not well understood. To date scholars have primarily focused on commercial and technological factors highlighting that oil was 'better' than coal - more powerful cheaper cleaner and more practical to use - and that the internal combustion engine made it more advantageous to use in transportation. Yet oil was also a strategic commodity that powerful states sought to acquire for military reasons. This article contends that geopolitics military decision-making and energy security hastened the transition from oil to coal prior to the First World War. It argues that Britain Germany and the United States sought to transition their naval fleets from coal to oil to gain a military advantage at sea which created for the first time the problem of oil-supply security. Through government-led initiatives to address oil-supply security vast new supplies of oil came online and prices fell the ideal environment for oil to eclipse coal as the dominant source in the global energy system.
Citation Count: 7
The great game in the Levant: energy geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean [Levant’ta büyük oyun: Doğu Akdeniz’in enerji jeopolitiği]
(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği, 2012) Ediger, Volkan S.; Devlen, Balkan; McDonald, Deniz Bingöl
This study explores the historical evolution of the Levant region from the trade system to hydrocarbon geopolitics by using a longue duree approach one which evaluates the region's present situation in light of developments in oil and natural gas exploration production and export. The concepts of great power politics and balance of power frame the investigation of permanent and changing dimensions of hydrocarbon geopolitics. The first of the two hypotheses tested and verified in this study is that the geopolitics of the Levant maintains its historical importance for the global hegemon and for the international state system even though the central thrust of the Levant's geopolitics has been tranformed from trade to energy. The second hypothesis is that regional and global peace and stability increase when the geopolitics of the Levant is in the control of a hegemon. Instances of conflict increase and opportunities for cooperation decrease when the Levant's geopolitics slips from the grasp of a single hegemon as a result of shifts in the balance of power. Following a discussion of threats and opportunities for conflict and cooperation in the Levant region possible strategies for the regional actors are evaluated. Lastly the threats and opportunities that Turkey faces are situated within emergent trends in the energy geopolitics of the region.
Citation Count: 0
The Only Thing We Have to Fear: Post 9/11 Institutionalization of In-security [Korkmamız gereken tek şey: 11 Eylül sonrasında güvensizliğin kurumsallaşması]
(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği, 2012) Çelikpala, Mitat; Öztürk, Duygu
During the last decade billions of dollars have been spent to increase security measures in the United States. New institutions including a department for homeland security have been established new security tools have been developed and surveillance of Americans has been increased. However despite the creation of 'safety zones' neither the level of the Americans' feeling of security from further terrorist attacks nor their confidence in the ability of US governments to prevent attacks has seen an increase. According to Beck who introduced the concepts of 'world risk society' and 'reflexive modernity' terrorism is one of the products of reflexive modernity which cannot be addressed by traditional security measures. Within this framework this paper analyzes the case of the Americans since 9/11 attacks. In this vein it is argued that the gap which has arisen as a result of addressing non-territory and non-state-based terrorism through state-based security measures has caused a continuation of a high level of insecurity fear and anxiety among the Americans. Public opinion surveys conducted in the United States since the 9/11 attacks by various institutions are used to analyze Americans' thoughts about security and the terror risk in the United States.
Citation Count: 4
Europeanization under Membership Uncertainty: The Cases of Environmental and Energy Policy in Turkey
(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği, 2013) Yıldırım, Cagri; Baysan, Alper; Ediger, Volkan S.
This article examines modalities of rule adoption from the EU's acquis communautaire under conditions of membership uncertainty Drawing upon the case of Turkey we probe into the viability of a policy-type approach (drawing upon Theodor Lowi). Our main contention is that the substantive design of policies (distributive or redistributive qualities) has consequential implications for the form (conflict-free vs. veto player constellations) and outcome (transposition likelihood) of the subsequent political process. The proposed policy-type approach internalist in its outlook is thus readily compatible with available Europeanization models which are externalist insofar as being premised on the study of domestic politics. In terms of policymaking the EU needs to make more frequent use of policy-based intermediate rewards to encourage rule adoption where membership prospects are uncertain.
Citation Count: 30
Lignite resources of Turkey: Geology reserves and exploration history
(Elsevier Science, 2014) Ediger, Volkan S.; Berk, Istemi; Kosebalaban, Ayhan
This article aims to emphasize the importance of lignite which is the mostly used domestic energy source in the Turkish energy mix by briefly overviewing its geology reserves and exploration. Lignites are distributed in mostly continental sedimentary basins of Tertiary age all over the country. The lignite-bearing basins display the characteristics of different geological settings of which grabens and half-grabens are the most common ones especially in western Anatolia. The geological and chemical characteristics of Turkish lignites do not only create some important problems during mining and coal preparation but also make them unfavorable for consumption. However since they are the most valuable energy resource of the country they should benefit the economy in the most efficient and environmentally friendly way. Moreover two most important conclusions of this study are as follows: firstly reserve estimation practices in the country should definitely be revised to provide a more realistic evaluation of the country's lignite potential for developing medium- and long-term energy strategies and policies for decision- and policy-makers. Secondly exploration and development activities should be coordinated by a single institution most likely a government institution as has been the case for some 50 years. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 4
An assessment of mining efficiency in Turkish lignite industry
(Elsevier Science, 2015) Ediger, Volkan S.; Berk, Istemi; Ersoy, Mucella
This article focuses on the mining activities of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) the major lignite supplier in Turkey. First we analyzed the lignite production and overburden removal activities of TKI from a historical perspective and then employed the Principle Component Analysis to build a mining efficiency index of TKI and investigated its historical development since the establishment of the company. We found that labor productivity and operational structure have been the most important factors positively affecting the index. The current article makes two important contributions: (1) by using the most comprehensive data set available on TKI for the first time and (2) by developing a Mining Efficiency Index (MEI) which can be used to analyze productivity in lignite mining activities in different countries. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: 11
Forecasting the Coal Production: Hubbert Curve Application on Turkey's Lignite Fields
(Elsevier Science, 2016) Berk, Istemi; Ediger, Volkan S.
The dependence on imported energy sources is one of the biggest challenges that Turkey and many other similar countries face in the 21st Century and the gap between production and consumption cannot be decreased without increasing the domestic production. Forecasting of domestic energy production therefore plays a vital role in order to be able to develop sound energy policies towards maintaining sustainable development. However although this question is essential in this respect especially for import dependent countries the previous literature is surprisingly scarce. This paper therefore will be important for future studies on estimation of energy production. We first analyzed lignite production of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) from a historical perspective and then forecasted the future production by using the Hubbert curve depletion rate and decline curve methodologies. We concluded that the largest fields are about to enter a declining phase of production in upcoming years and most of the reserves will remain untapped if business-as-usual continues in the future. The methodology and interpretations may be used by other developing countries which deeply suffer from energy import dependency.
Citation Count: 2
The Effect of Energy Geopolitics on International Climate Change Initiatives
(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği, 2017) Ediger, Volkan S.
In this article in general the relationship between international climate change initiatives and energy geopolitics was analyzed and in particular the developments in energy geopolitics were investigated with a historical point of view by dividing the years between 1965 and 2014 into periods of geopolitical intensity and geopolitical stability based on long-term periodic variations in oil prices. More specifically the reasons why international initiatives such as the Kyoto Protocol regarded as an important agreement for imposing commitments in climate change mitigation have not been sufficiently successful were investigated. Regarding the Kyoto Protocol the failure stemmed from three main reasons. The first and the most important reason was the intensification of geopolitical tensions on a global scale. The second reason was the differences among states in terms of their energy needs and possession of indigenous energy sources. The last reason was the ambiguity regarding the role of the state and the market at the implementation level. The author links the general failure in the efforts to tackle climate change to the developments in energy geopolitics and argues that the competition periods in energy geopolitics as observed during the oil crises decrease the chances of success for international initiatives on climate change.

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