Ekonomi Bölümü Koleksiyonu
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Article Citation - WoS: 47Citation - Scopus: 59The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy(Routledge Journals Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2011) Görener, Aylin; Ucal, Meltem ŞengünRecep Tayyip Erdog. an is clearly the most controversial figure in recent Turkish political history. His preponderance in political life is remarkable even by Turkish standards. Because Erdog. an is so powerful and has effectively weakened most internal checks on his power any attempt to explain Turkey's recent foreign policy outcomes will be seriously lacking without considering his leadership impact. The purpose of this study is to investigate Erdog. an's worldview and leadership style and evaluate their impact on his government's policy processes and outputs. To do that we employ the Leadership Trait Analysis technique to construct the leadership profile of Erdog. an through content analysis of his verbal records while in office. We contend here that our understanding of AKP-era Turkey is enhanced if we offer a systematic and rigorous account of Erdogan's personality and that he presents a clear example of the importance of taking individual-level variables seriously in foreign policy analysis.Book Part Macroeconomic Adjustment in Asia After the Global Financial Crisis: Japan, Korea, and China(Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2017) Akkemik, K. Ali; Özdemir, Onur[Abstract Not Available]Other Electronic Money in 2000's(Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2004) Ucal, Meltem ŞengünPara, dünya ekonomilerinin tümü için gerekli bir araçtır. Buna karşın elektronik para da gelişmiş ülkeler için gerekli bir araç haline gelmiştir. Günümüzde internet ortamı yolu ile yapılan finansal hizmetlerdeki muameleler için elektronik para ve elektronik ödeme sistemleri oldukça popülerdir. Elektronik sistemlerde meydana gelen bu değişmeler ekonomik ortamda gerçekleşen perakende satış ödemelerinde geleneksel işlemlerin yanında iki yeni formu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bunlar, bir kişisel bilgisayar ile evden veya işyerinden banka işlemleri yapmak ve elektronik nakit kullanımıdır. Söz konusu muameleler güvene dayalı gerçekleştirilir. Özellikle de teknolojilerin hızla değiştiği 2000’li yılları kat edeken, bu sistemde gerçekleşmesi gereken en önemli unsur elektronik paranın kanunlar çerçevesinde değerlendirilmesidir. Fakat Türkiye elektronik para sistemleri için henüz bir kanuni çerçeve çizmemiştir.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 3Who Wants Left-Wing Policies? Economic Preferences and Political Cleavages in Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Yagcı, Alper H.; Harma, Mehmet; Tekgüç, HasanWe administer a survey of economic policy preferences to a representative sample of the Turkish voting-age population. We show that policy preferences are distributed in non-linear ways that are at odds with what could be expected from a conventional left-right division. We find that while objective socioeconomic differences are bad at predicting economic policy preferences, the latter are distinctly associated with politically salient cleavages built on religiosity and ethnicity. We also examine how preferences of each party's voters compare with party programmes.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 3Perceived Happiness, Perceived Trust and Perceived Income Levels: the Case of the Reunified Germany(Savez Ekonomista Vojvodine, 2019) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Günay, SimgeThis study explored the possible impact of perceived income on individual (perceived) happiness in Eastern and Western Germany in relation to perceived trust and four socio-economic variables, namely gender, age, marital status and employment status. To examine the relationship between these variables, a generalized ordered logit model was applied using the World Values Survey data. Bootstrapping and marginal effects were used to obtain a more robust model. The findings provided insights regarding the impact of perceived income and perceived trust on individual (perceived) happiness in both regions after reunification. Perceived income had a positive effect on all happiness categories in both regions. Perceived trust had a stronger positive impact on individual happiness than that of perceived income, although its significance varied across individual (perceived) happiness categories. Analysis of marginal effects revealed differences between the base models.Article Competition in Banking Sector(Güven Plus Grup Danışmanlık A.Ş., 2012) Ekmekçioğlu, Safiye; Korkmaz, Murat; Ceylan, Nesrin; Yahyaoğlu, Güran; Günsel, İrfan[Abstract Not Available]Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 3Contours of Alternative Policy Making in Venezuela(Sage Publications Inc, 2014) Orhangazi, ÖzgürThe economic policies of the Venezuelan government in the last decade represent a significant departure from neoliberal orthodoxy. This departure consists of a focus on greater national autonomy, a return to some of the macroeconomic policies of earlier eras, and increased state involvement in the economy through interventions and social programs. While these policies have resulted in improved social indicators, they also have provided space for a set of "transformative" initiatives, including experiments with worker co-management, cooperatives, and participatory planning, all of which seek alternatives to the capitalist organization of the economy. Although the Venezuelan experience could be considered sui generis, especially with the economy's dependence on oil, a critical evaluation of the policies implemented in Venezuela would contribute to discussions on the alternatives to both neoliberal policies and capitalism in general. This paper provides an analysis of the break with neoliberal economic policies and of the transformative initiatives, as well as an evaluation of their achievements together with a discussion on their likely future path.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 9Time-Varying Fairness Concerns Delay and Disagreement in Bargaining(Elsevier Science, 2018) Karagozoglu, Emin; Keskin, KerimWe study an alternating-offers bilateral bargaining game where players may derive disutility from accepting shares below what they deem as fair Moreover we assume that the values they attach to fairness (i.e. their sensitivity to violations of their fairness judgments) decrease over time as the deadline approaches. Our results offer a new explanation to delays and disagreements in dynamic negotiations. We show that even mutually compatible fairness judgments do not guarantee an immediate agreement. We partially characterize conditions for delay and disagreement and study the changes in the length of delay in response to changes in the model parameters. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 21Citation - Scopus: 21A Dynamic Game Theory Model for Tourism Supply Chains(Sage Publications, 2021) Keskin, Kerim; Ucal, Meltem ŞengünThis article contributes to the game-theoretic analysis of tourism supply chains. We start with a baseline model including three types of agents: (a) one theme park, (b) multiple accommodation providers, and (c) multiple tour operators. We investigate the strategic dynamics (i.e., collaboration and competition) embedded in a market with two different tourism supply chains, and then we extend our model to an infinite-horizon repeated game arguing that agents would face the same decision problem in each week of every holiday season in each year. We show how agents in a tourism supply chain end up with higher profits in any given period of a repeated game compared with their profits in the static version of the game.Article Citation - WoS: 31Citation - Scopus: 35Competition and Monopoly in the U.s. Economy: What Do the Industrial Concentration Data Show?(Sage Publications, 2021) Davis, Leila; Orhangazi, ÖzgürA recent series of academic studies, think-tank reports, and news articles shows widespread attention to rising industrial concentration and market power in the U.S. economy. In this paper, we focus on concentration in the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector to make three contributions to the literature. First, we use examples from the debate on industrial concentration to show that there are often-divergent predictions in the theoretical literature surrounding the expected consequences of concentration and monopolization for nonfinancial firms. Second, we use industry-level concentration data to describe recent trends in average concentration. We show that, while concentration increases across the majority of industries after the late 1990s, the retail and information-services sectors are particularly key for understanding recent trends in average industrial concentration. Third, we link our industry-level analysis with firm-level data to describe the relationship between industrial concentration and nonfinancial corporations' profitability, markups, and investment. Consistent with the ambiguities in the theoretical literature, we find that these relationships are not uniform: while some highly concentrated industries confirm standard expectations with high markups, high profitability, and low investment rates, other highly concentrated industries earn lower-than-average markups and profits, suggesting that - in some industries - increased concentration and intensified competition may go hand in hand.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 15Sabotage in Team Contests(Springer, 2019) Dogan, Serhat; Keskin, Kerim; Saglam, CagriIn the contest literature sabotage is defined as a deliberate and costly activity that damages the opponent's likelihood of winning the contest. Most of the existing results suggest that anticipating a possible sabotage contestants would be discouraged from exerting high efforts. In this paper we investigate the act of sabotage in a team contest wherein team members exert costly efforts as a contribution to their team's aggregate effort which in turn determines the contest's outcome. For the baseline model with no sabotage there exists a corner equilibrium implying a free-rider problem in each team. As for the model with sabotage our characterization of Nash equilibrium reveals two important results: (i) a unique interior equilibrium exists so that the free-rider problem no longer is a concern and (ii) the discouragement effect of sabotage vanishes for some players. On top of those conclusions we investigate the team owner's problems of prize allocation and team formation with the objective being to maximize his team's winning probability.Article Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 16Detecting Structural Changes Using Wavelets(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2015) Yazgan, M. Ege; Ozkan, HarunWe propose a powerful wavelet method to identify structural breaks in the mean of a process. If there is a structural change in the mean the sum of the squared scaling coefficients absorbs more variation leading to unequal weights for the variances of the wavelet and scaling coefficients. We use this feature of wavelets to design a statistical test for changes in the mean of an independently distributed process. We establish the limiting null distribution of our test and demonstrate that our test has good empirical size and substantive power relative to the existing alternatives especially for multiple breaks. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 7Ethnic Fractionalization Conflict and Educational Development in Turkey(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2019) Oyvat, Cem; Tekgüç, HasanWe examine the impact of ethnic fractionalization and conflict on limiting the educational development in Southeastern Turkey. Our estimates show that although the armed conflict in the region did not directly hinder education investments it reduced school enrolment rates at middle and high school levels while increasing enrolment at the primary school level. Moreover we show that provinces with higher percentages of Kurdish population received less education investment. These results suggest that the neglect of Kurdish areas is an important factor behind Southeastern Turkey's educational underdevelopment while land inequality and the armed conflict had mixed effects on education in the region.Article On (mis-)perception of Probabilities in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions(Economics Bulletin, 2019) Kantur, Zeynep; Keskin, KerimWe study a two-stage probability weighting model [see Tversky and Fox 1995] in a first-price sealed-bid auction. We present the unique symmetric equilibrium and provide some experimental support for our model.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 3An Econometric Analysis of Imported Timber Demand in Turkey(WFL PUBL, 2013) Kayacan, Bekir; Kara, Oğuz; Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Öztürk, Atakan; Bali, Ramazan; Koçer, Sacit; Kaplan, ErdemThis paper attempts to understand and explain determinants of Turkish demand for foreign timber imported to Turkey. Explanatory variables in the propounded model include price of imported timber price of domestically-produced sawlog as an imperfect substitute income per capita country population and capacity utilization rates (CUR's) and industrial production indices (IPI's) of forest industry sectors. For empirical purpose we used a time series data covering the 15-year period between 1995 and 2009. The econometric model set for there appears to be able to explain more than 96% of the variation in demand for imported timber with all of the parameter estimates except for population parameter being statistically significant. Estimation results confirm the existence of the price elasticity and substitute cross-price elasticity of demand for imported timber. Results also imply that the Turkish firms importing timber tend to consider domestic sawlog prices as much as even more than the price of foreign timber. The hypothesized effects of production changes in wood products and furniture industries on imported timber demand do not appear to be substantiated by this study which can partly be attributed to the partial method of measuring CUR's and IPI's. Meanwhile possible effects of income population and exchange rate index of the Turkish currency on the imported timber demand of the country are not evidenced by the empirical findings of this research. Finally our model forecasts ceteris paribus that by 2016 the level of Turkish demand for imported timber demand can reasonably be expected to exceed 2 million m(3)/year. This corresponds to the level of timber import observed in the years preceding the global economic crisis in 2009.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5Heterogeneous Effects of Minimum Wage on Labor Market Outcomes: a Case Study From Turkey(Walter de Gruyter, 2020) Işık, Enes; Orhangazi, Özgür; Tekgüç, HasanWe assess the effects of a sharp minimum wage increase on wages, informality, and employment in Turkey, a large developing economy with one of the highest minimum wage-to-average wage ratios among OECD countries and widespread discrepancies between labor market outcomes of women and of men. We look at the quasi-experimental 2016 minimum wage increase and pay attention to identifying information coming from demographic groups. We find that the increase in the minimum wage had an economically substantial and statistically significant positive impact on wages. Despite the positive wage effects of the increase, we find no negative employment effects. However, we show that the minimum wage increase may have caused an increase in the share of informal employment among workers with less than tertiary education, especially for such workers working for small firmsArticle Militancy Governance Under State Failure: Models of Legitimacy Contestation in Ungoverned Spaces(2017) Ünver, Hamid AkınThis article makes an empirical exposition of militancy governance under state failure by focusing on ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), YPG (People's Protection Units), Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic. Specifically, the article discusses how these groups mobilize different types of grievances and frame their propaganda to exert control over areas where states are weakened. Furthermore, how these groups engage in early modes of pre- and post-territorial control, form governance practices and prioritize particular areas for better administration are also elaborated in detail. Ultimately, the paper argues that Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs) perform better in areas of low loyalty and high resource-generation and if its territorial ambitions are maximalist (expansionist). Through these variables, we are better able to judge how sustainable these groups will be in their respective territories and how should states approach local governance once these groups are defeated.Book Review Social Foundations of Markets Money and Credit(Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2006) Aybar, Sedat[Abstract Not Available]Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 4Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Turkey?(M.E Sharpe Inc., 2010) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Alici, AsliThe issue of the budget deficit has become one of the main themes of the economic policy implemented in Turkey and backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following the economic crisis of 2001. The main motivation for this study is the question of whether or not the government's financial policy is sustainable and satisfies the government's long-term budget constraint. The empirical analysis is based on tests of whether government expenditure and revenue are cointegrated considering the economic liberalization period of 1989-2008. The stability of fiscal policy is examined using the Johansen multivariate cointegration method. The findings of the sustainability tests indicate that fiscal policy from the liberalization of the economy up until the 2001 economic crisis was not sustainable.Article Citation - WoS: 43Citation - Scopus: 50Relationship Between Financial Crisis and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries Using Semiparametric Regression Approach(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2010) Ucal, Meltem Şengün; Ozcan, Kivilcim Metin; Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Mungo, JuliusThis paper analyzes whether and to what extent the inflow of FDI is affected before and after the occurence of a financial crisis in developing countries. The paper uses a semiparametric Generalized Partial Linear Models (GPLM) regression approach to check the appropriateness and effectiveness of financial crisis in the FDI regression model. The results indicate that FDI inflows decrease in the years after a financial crisis and an upturn in FDI inflows the year before a financial crisis hit the country.
