Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
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Bilge A.
BILGE, Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, AYŞE HÜMEYRA
Bilge, Ayse Humeyra
AYŞE HÜMEYRA BILGE
A. Bilge
Bilge,Ayse Humeyra
Ayşe Hümeyra Bilge
Bilge,A.H.
BILGE, AYŞE HÜMEYRA
Kupeli A.
B., Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
B.,Ayse Humeyra
Bilge, A. H.
Ayse Humeyra, Bilge
A. H. Bilge
B., Ayse Humeyra
Bilge, A.
Ayşe Hümeyra BILGE
Hümeyra Bilge, Ayşe
Bilge, Ayşe Humeyra
Bilge, Ayşe
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
BILGE, Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, AYŞE HÜMEYRA
Bilge, Ayse Humeyra
AYŞE HÜMEYRA BILGE
A. Bilge
Bilge,Ayse Humeyra
Ayşe Hümeyra Bilge
Bilge,A.H.
BILGE, AYŞE HÜMEYRA
Kupeli A.
B., Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
B.,Ayse Humeyra
Bilge, A. H.
Ayse Humeyra, Bilge
A. H. Bilge
B., Ayse Humeyra
Bilge, A.
Ayşe Hümeyra BILGE
Hümeyra Bilge, Ayşe
Bilge, Ayşe Humeyra
Bilge, Ayşe
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra
Job Title
Prof. Dr.
Email Address
Main Affiliation
Industrial Engineering
Status
Current Staff
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ORCID ID
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Turkish CoHE Profile ID
Google Scholar ID
WoS Researcher ID
Sustainable Development Goals
15
LIFE ON LAND
0
Research Products
16
PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS
0
Research Products
14
LIFE BELOW WATER
0
Research Products
6
CLEAN WATER AND SANITATION
1
Research Products
3
GOOD HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
20
Research Products
17
PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE GOALS
1
Research Products
4
QUALITY EDUCATION
0
Research Products
2
ZERO HUNGER
0
Research Products
10
REDUCED INEQUALITIES
0
Research Products
7
AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY
2
Research Products
13
CLIMATE ACTION
0
Research Products
1
NO POVERTY
0
Research Products
9
INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
0
Research Products
12
RESPONSIBLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
0
Research Products
8
DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
1
Research Products
11
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
5
Research Products
5
GENDER EQUALITY
0
Research Products
Documents
81
Citations
552
h-index
12
Documents
68
Citations
451
Scholarly Output
65
Articles
43
Views / Downloads
468/6892
Supervised MSc Theses
12
Supervised PhD Theses
1
WoS Citation Count
287
Scopus Citation Count
362
WoS h-index
9
Scopus h-index
10
Patents
0
Projects
0
WoS Citations per Publication
4.42
Scopus Citations per Publication
5.57
Open Access Source
46
Supervised Theses
13
| Journal | Count |
|---|---|
| Journal of Physics: Conference Series | 6 |
| International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | 5 |
| Energy Strategy Reviews | 2 |
| Modern Physics Letters B | 2 |
| Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi (Online) | 2 |
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65 results
Scholarly Output Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 65
Master Thesis Kurumsal Kredi Risk Değerlendirmesi: Bir Türk Finans Kurumu Örneği(2023) Hajjaouı, Btıssam; Bilge, Ayşe HümeyraBu tez iki bölümden oluşmaktadır. İlk bölümde, bir müşterinin ödeme yapıp yapmayacağını tahmin etmeye çalışıyoruz. İkinci bölümde, kredi başvurusunun onaylanıp onaylanmayacağına karar vermek için bir kredi skoru modeli oluşturma üzerine çalışıyoruz. Bu amaçla kullanılan veri kümesi, finans sektöründeki önde gelen kurumlardan birinden elde edilmiştir. Veri kümesi, başvuru sahibinin verilerine, kurumsal verilere, hissedar verilerine ve kredi geçmişine genel olarak atıfta bulunan 401 değişkeni içerir. Bu değişkenler içerisinden, giriş değişkenlerini ayırt ederek ve ardından bu girişleri inceleyerek kuvvetli ilişkili değişkenleri ve neredeyse tamamı eksik değerlerden oluşan değişkenleri kullanmaktan kaçınarak azaltıyoruz. Veri kümesindeki değişkenlerin büyük bir kısmında haklı sebeplerle eksik giriş bulunmaktadır. Bu sorunu çözmek için, hangi değişken grubunun hangi müşteriyle ilgili olduğunu yansıtmak adına yedi alt küme oluşturduk. Onaylanan krediler arasında yaklaşık %96 oranında ödeme yapan örnekler ve %4 oranında ödeme yapmayan örnekler bulunmaktadır. Bu tezde, eğitim kümelerindeki örnekleri dengelemek için üç örnekleme tekniği kullanıyoruz: alt örnekleme, aşırı örnekleme ve sentetik azınlık aşırı örnekleme tekniği. Ayrıca altı sınıflandırıcı uyguluyoruz: Rastgele Orman, Naif Bayes, Lojistik Regresyon, Destek Vektör Makinesi, Karar Ağacı ve K-En Yakın Komşu. Bu tekniklerin performansını ölçmek adına, çoğunluk sınıfının ve azınlık sınıfının sırasıyla ne kadar iyi tahmin edildiğini ölçmek için duyarlılık ve özgüllük kullanıyoruz. Hesaplamalar sonucunda, %50'den fazla duyarlılık ve özgüllük elde ettik, burada alt örnekleme tekniğinin azınlık sınıfı için en iyi örnekleme tekniği olduğu ve SMOTE ve aşırı örneklemenin, çoğunluk sınıfı için daha iyi performans gösterdiği gözlemlenmiştir. Seçilen değişkenlerin analizinde, neredeyse tüm değişkenlerin onaylanan ve reddedilen krediler arasında ayrım yapamadığı gözlemlendiği için lojistik regresyon kullanılarak tahmin edilen kredi puanları güvenilmez olarak değerlendirildi.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 12An Analysis of Price Spikes and Deviations in the Deregulated Turkish Power Market(Elsevier, 2019) Gayretli, Gizem; Yücekaya, Ahmet; Bilge, Ayşe HümeyraThe successful operation of a real time market is related to the planning in the day ahead market. We analyze the day ahead and real time market data for the Turkish power market for the period 2012-2015 to classify price spikes and their causes. We also focus on the levels of deviation between the day ahead market values and the real time market values. We define price deviation and load deviation ratios to measure the level of deviation both in price and demand. The analysis for the load is based on load shedding and cycling values. We analyze the mean and standard deviation in market prices and we determine the price spike as a two sigma deviation from the mean value. It is shown that 60% of the price deviation ratios are in the range of ( +/- 20%), while 44% are in the range of ( +/- 10%) and 35% are in the range of (+/- 5%). We also show that 56.9% of the spikes are due to problems in the generation of natural gas based power plants which affect the day ahead and real time prices. A total of 29.2% of the spikes are due to power plant and system failures that affect only real time prices. The share of high temperature based spikes is 13.9% which is a result of air conditioner usage.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 9COMPUTATION OF MONTHLY RUNOFF COEFFICIENTS FOR ISTANBUL(VINCA INST NUCLEAR SCI, 2021) Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Ülker, Duygu; Burak, SelmanWater demand for Istanbul is supplied both by impounded reservoirs located within its provincial boundaries and by water transfer from Western and Eastern regions in peripheral areas, located in South-West Black Sea region. The runoff coefficient defined as the ratio of the streamflow to the precipitation, plays a key role in the calculation of the surface water yield of water catchment areas. In this paper, we present the computation of monthly runoff coefficients for an accurate estimation of the yield of the catchment areas. We obtain statistical parameters for monthly temperatures and precipitation, based on 105-year data recorded at Istanbul Kandilli Observatory, modeled as Gaussian and Rayleigh distributed random variables, respectively. We run simulations to predict temperatures and precipitation over a horizon extending to 2100. We apply Turc's formula and Thornthwaite method to obtain monthly runoff coefficients based on long-term data. The results are compared and discussed with the findings of previous researches.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2On the Classification of Fifth Order Quasi-Linear Non-Constant Separant Scalar Evolution Equations of the Kdv-Type(Physical Soc Japan, 2012) Özkum, Gülcan; Bilge, Ayşe HümeyraFifth order, quasi-linear, non-constant separant evolution equations are of the form u(t) = A(partial derivative(5)u/partial derivative x(5)) + (B) over tilde, where A and (B) over tilde are functions of x, t, u and of the derivatives of u with respect to x up to order 4. We use the existence of a "formal symmetry'', hence the existence of "canonical conservation laws'' rho((i)), i = -1, . . . , 5 as an integrability test. We define an evolution equation to be of the KdV-Type, if all odd numbered canonical conserved densities are nontrivial. We prove that fifth order, quasi-linear, non-constant separant evolution equations of KdV type are polynomial in the function a = A(1/5); a = (alpha u(3)(2) + beta u(3) + gamma)(-1/2), where alpha, beta, and gamma are functions of x, t, u and of the derivatives of u with respect to x up to order 2. We determine the u(2) dependency of a in terms of P = 4 alpha gamma - beta(2) > 0 and we give an explicit solution, showing that there are integrable fifth order non-polynomial evolution equations.Article Citation - Scopus: 6Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand Under Covid-19 Restrictions(Econjournals, 2022) Kök, A.; Yükseltan, E.; Hekimoğlu, M.; Aktunc, E.A.; Yücekaya, A.; Bilge, A.The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted many sectors including the electricity sector. The restrictions such as lockdowns, remote-working, and-schooling significantly altered the consumers’ behaviors and demand structure especially due to a large number of people working at home. Accurate demand forecasts and detailed production plans are crucial for cost-efficient generation and transmission of electricity. In this research, the restrictions and their corresponding timing are classified and mapped with the Turkish electricity demand data to analyze the impact of the restrictions on total demand using a multiple linear regression model. In addition, the model is utilized to forecast the electricity demand in pandemic conditions and to analyze how different types of restrictions impact the total electricity demand. It is found that among three levels of COVID-19 restrictions, age-specific restrictions and the complete lockdown have different effects on the electricity demand on weekends and weekdays. In general, new scheduling approaches for daily and weekly loads are required to avoid supply-demand mismatches as COVID-19 significantly changed the consumer behavior, which appears as altered daily and weekly load profiles of the country. Long-term policy implications for the energy transition and lessons learned from the COVID-19 experience are also discussed. © 2022, Econjournals. All rights reserved.Book Part Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Determining the Critical Point of a Sigmoidal Curve Via Its Fourier Transform(Institute of Physics Publishing, 2016) Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Özdemir, YunusA sigmoidal curve y(t) is a monotone increasing curve such that all derivatives vanish at infinity. Let tn be the point where the nth derivative of y(t) reaches its global extremum. In the previous work on sol-gel transition modelled by the Susceptible-Infected- Recovered (SIR) system, we observed that the sequence {tn } seemed to converge to a point that agrees qualitatively with the location of the gel point [2]. In the present work we outline a proof that for sigmoidal curves satisfying fairly general assumptions on their Fourier transform, the sequence {tn } is convergent and we call it "the critical point of the sigmoidal curve". In the context of phase transitions, the limit point is interpreted as a junction point of two different regimes where all derivatives undergo their highest rate of change.Article Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 20The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and behavioral restrictions on electricity consumption and the daily demand curve in Turkey(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2022) Yukseltan, E.; Kok, A.; Yucekaya, A.; Bilge, A.; Aktunc, E. Agca; Hekimoglu, M.The rapid spread of COVID-19 has severely impacted many sectors, including the electricity sector. The reliability of the electricity sector is critical to the economy, health, and welfare of society; therefore, supply and demand need to be balanced in real-time, and the impact of unexpected factors should be analyzed. During the pandemic, behavioral restrictions such as lockdowns, closure of factories, schools, and shopping malls, and changing habits, such as shifted work and leisure hours at home, significantly affected the demand structure. In this research, the restrictions and their corresponding timing are classified and mapped with the Turkish electricity demand data to analyze the estimated impact of the restrictions on total demand and daily demand profile. A modulated Fourier Series Expansion evaluates deviations from normal conditions in the aggregate demand and the daily consumption profile. The aggregate demand shows a significant decrease in the early phase of the pandemic, during the period March-June 2020. The shape of the daily demand curve is analyzed to estimate how much demand shifted from daytime to night-time. A population-based restriction index is proposed to analyze the relationship between the strength and coverage of the restrictions and the total demand. The persistency of the changes in the daily demand curve in the post-contingency period is analyzed. These findings imply that new scheduling approaches for daily and weekly loads are required to avoid supply-demand mismatches in the future. The longterm policy implications for the energy transition and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic experience are also presented.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Mathematical Models for Phase Transitions in Biogels(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2019) Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Öğrenci, Arif Selçuk; Pekcan, ÖnderIt has been shown that reversible and irreversible phase transitions of biogels can be represented by epidemic models. The irreversible chemical sol-gel transitions are modeled by the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) or Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemic systems whereas reversible physical gels are modeled by a modification of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) system. Measured sol-gel and gel-sol transition data have been fitted to the solutions of the epidemic models, either by solving the differential equations directly (SIR and SEIR models) or by nonlinear regression (SIS model). The gel point is represented as the "critical point of sigmoid," defined as the limit point of the locations of the extreme values of its derivatives. Then, the parameters of the sigmoidal curve representing the gelation process are used to predict the gel point and its relative position with respect to the transition point, that is, the maximum of the first derivative with respect to time. For chemical gels, the gel point is always located before the maximum of the first derivative and moves backward in time as the strength of the activation increases. For physical gels, the critical point for the sol-gel transition occurs before the maximum of the first derivative with respect to time, that is, it is located at the right of this maximum with respect to temperature. For gel-sol transitions, the critical point is close to the transition point; the critical point occurs after the maximum of the first derivative for low concentrations whereas the critical point occurs after the maximum of the first derivative for higher concentrations.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Determination of Epidemic Parameters From Early Phase Fatality Data: a Case Study of the 2009 A(h1n1) Pandemic in Europe(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2018) Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Samanlıoğlu, FundaThis paper demonstrates that the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model applied to the early phase of an epidemic can be used to determine epidemic parameters reliably. As a case study the SIR model is applied to the fatality data of the 2009 fall wave cycle of the A(H1N1) pandemic in 12 European countries. It is observed that the best estimates of the basic reproduction number R-0 and the mean duration of the infection period 1/eta lie on a curve in the scatterplots indicating the existence of a nearly-invariant quantity which corresponds to the duration of the epidemic. Spline interpolation applied to the early phase of the epidemic an approximately 10-week period together with a future control point in the stabilization region is sufficient to estimate model parameters. The SIR model is run over a wide range of parameters and estimates of R0 in the range 1.2-2.0 match the values in the literature. The duration of the infection period 1/eta is estimated to be in the range 2.0-7.0 days. Longer infection periods are tied to spatial characteristics of the spread of the epidemic.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 15Forecasting Models for Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations and Demand Segregation(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Yükseltan, Ergün; Yücekaya, Ahmet; Bilge, Ayşe Hümeyra; Ağca Aktunç, EsraDue to expensive infrastructure and the difficulties in storage, supply conditions of natural gas are different from those of other traditional energy sources like petroleum or coal. To overcome these challenges, supplier countries require take-or-pay agreements for requested natural gas quantities. These contracts have many pre-clauses; even if they are not met due to low/high consumption or other external factors, buyers must completely fulfill them. A similar contract is then imposed on distributors and wholesale consumers. It is, thus, important for all parties to forecast their daily, monthly, and annual natural gas demand to minimize their risk. In this paper, a model consisting of a modulated expansion in Fourier series, supplemented by deviations from comfortable temperatures as a regressor is proposed for the forecast of monthly and weekly consumption over a one-year horizon. This model is supplemented by a day-ahead feedback mechanism for the forecast of daily consumption. The method is applied to the study of natural gas consumption for major residential areas in Turkey, on a yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily basis. It is shown that residential heating dominates winter consumption and masks all other variations. On the other hand, weekend and holiday effects are visible in summer consumption and provide an estimate for residential and industrial use. The advantage of the proposed method is the capability of long term projections, reflecting causality, and providing accurate forecasts even with minimal information.
