Hekimoğlu, Mustafa
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Hekimoğlu, Mustafa
M.,Hekimoğlu
M. Hekimoğlu
Mustafa, Hekimoğlu
Hekimoglu, Mustafa
M.,Hekimoglu
M. Hekimoglu
Mustafa, Hekimoglu
Hekimoglu,M.
Hekimoglu, M.
Hekimoğlu, M.
M.,Hekimoğlu
M. Hekimoğlu
Mustafa, Hekimoğlu
Hekimoglu, Mustafa
M.,Hekimoglu
M. Hekimoglu
Mustafa, Hekimoglu
Hekimoglu,M.
Hekimoglu, M.
Hekimoğlu, M.
Job Title
Doç. Dr.
Email Address
Mustafa.hekı[email protected]
Main Affiliation
Industrial Engineering
Status
Former Staff
Website
ORCID ID
Scopus Author ID
Turkish CoHE Profile ID
Google Scholar ID
WoS Researcher ID
Sustainable Development Goals
13
CLIMATE ACTION
2
Research Products
2
ZERO HUNGER
0
Research Products
7
AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY
2
Research Products
11
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
4
Research Products
15
LIFE ON LAND
1
Research Products
14
LIFE BELOW WATER
1
Research Products
8
DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
0
Research Products
3
GOOD HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
1
Research Products
5
GENDER EQUALITY
0
Research Products
9
INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
8
Research Products
12
RESPONSIBLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
2
Research Products
16
PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS
0
Research Products
1
NO POVERTY
0
Research Products
6
CLEAN WATER AND SANITATION
4
Research Products
17
PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE GOALS
0
Research Products
4
QUALITY EDUCATION
0
Research Products
10
REDUCED INEQUALITIES
0
Research Products
This researcher does not have a Scopus ID.
This researcher does not have a WoS ID.
Scholarly Output
38
Articles
28
Views / Downloads
2/0
Supervised MSc Theses
4
Supervised PhD Theses
1
WoS Citation Count
159
Scopus Citation Count
223
WoS h-index
7
Scopus h-index
8
Patents
0
Projects
0
WoS Citations per Publication
4.18
Scopus Citations per Publication
5.87
Open Access Source
16
Supervised Theses
5
| Journal | Count |
|---|---|
| International Journal of Production Economics | 3 |
| European Journal of Operational Research | 3 |
| Manufacturing Letters | 2 |
| International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics | 2 |
| International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | 2 |
Current Page: 1 / 5
Scopus Quartile Distribution
Competency Cloud
38 results
Scholarly Output Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 38
Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Decoding Rhythmic Complexity: a Nonlinear Dynamics Approach via Visibility Graphs for Classifying Asymmetrical Rhythmic Frameworks of Turkish Classical Music(Elsevier Science inc, 2025) Mirza, Fuat Kaan; Baykas, Tuncer; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Pekcan, Onder; Tuncay, Gonul PacaciThe non-isochronous, hierarchical rhythmic cycles (usuls) of Turkish Classical Music (TCM) exhibit emergent temporal structures that challenge conventional rhythm analysis based on metrical regularity. To address this challenge, this study presents a complexity-oriented framework for usul classification, grounded in nonlinear time series analysis and network-based representations. Rhythmic signals are processed through energy envelope extraction, diffusion entropy analysis, and spectral transformations to capture multiscale temporal dynamics. Visibility graphs (VGs) are constructed from these representations to encode underlying structural complexity and temporal dependencies. Features derived from VG adjacency matrices serve as complexity-sensitive descriptors and enable high-accuracy classification (0.99) across 40 usul classes and 628 compositions. Energy envelope-derived graphs provide the most discriminative information, highlighting the importance of amplitude modulation in encoding rhythmic structure. Beyond classification, the analysis reveals self-organizing patterns and signatures of complexity, such as quasi-periodicity, scale-dependent variability, and entropy saturation, suggesting that usuls function as adaptive, nonlinear systems rather than metrically constrained patterns. The topological features extracted from the resulting graphs align with theoretical constructs from complexity science, such as modularity and long-range temporal correlations. This positions usul as an exemplary case for studying structured temporal complexity in cultural artifacts through the lens of dynamical systems. These findings contribute to computational rhythm analysis by demonstrating the efficacy of complexity measures in characterizing culturally specific rhythmic systems.Article Citation - Scopus: 1A Novel Multiscale Graph Signal Processing and Network Dynamics Approach to Vibration Analysis for Stone Size Discrimination via Nonlinear Manifold Embeddings and a Convolutional Self-Attention Model(Springer Wien, 2025) Mirza, Fuat Kaan; Oz, Usame; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Aydemir, Mehmet Timur; Pural, Yusuf Enes; Baykas, Tuncer; Pekcan, OnderUnderstanding nonlinear dynamics is critical for analyzing the hidden complexities of vibrational behavior in real-world systems. This study introduces a graph-theoretic approach to analyze the complex nonlinear temporal patterns in vibrational signals, utilizing the Tri-Axial Vibro-Dynamic Stone Classification dataset. This dataset captures high-resolution acceleration signals from controlled stone-crushing experiments, providing a unique opportunity to investigate temporal dynamics associated with distinct stone sizes. A 12-level Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform is employed to perform multiscale signal decomposition, enabling the construction of transition graphs that encode transient and stable structural characteristics. Conceptually, transition graphs are analyzed as dynamic networks to uncover the interactions and temporal patterns embedded within vibrational signals. These networks are studied using a comprehensive suite of complexity metrics derived from information theory, graph theory, network science, and dynamical systems analysis. Metrics such as Shannon and Von Neumann's entropy evaluate signal dynamics' stochasticity and information retention. At the same time, the spectral radius measures the network's stability and structural robustness. Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimensions, informed by chaos theory and fractal geometry, further capture the degree of nonlinearity and temporal complexity. Complementing these dynamic measures, static network metrics-including the clustering coefficient, modularity, and the static Kuramoto index-offer critical discernment into the network's community structures, synchronization phenomena, and connectivity efficiency. Manifold learning techniques address the high-dimensional feature space derived from complexity metrics, with UMAP outperforming ISOMAP, Spectral Embedding, and PCA in preserving critical data structures. The reduced features are input into a convolutional self-attention model, combining localized feature extraction with long-term sequence modeling, achieving 100% classification accuracy across stone-size categories. This study presents a comprehensive framework for vibrational signal analysis, integrating multiscale graph-based representations, nonlinear dynamics quantification, and UMAP-based dimensionality reduction with a convolutional self-attention classifier. The proposed approach supports accurate classification and contributes to the development of data-driven tools for automated diagnostics and predictive maintenance in industrial and engineering contexts.Article Citation - WoS: 36Citation - Scopus: 46Evaluation of Water Supply Alternatives for Istanbul Using Forecasting and Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Savun Hekimoğlu, Başak; Erbay, Barbaros; Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Burak, Selmin; Savun-Hekimoğlu, BasakWater scarcity is one of the most serious problems of the future due to increasing urbanization and water demand. Urban water planners need to balance increasing water demand with water resources that are under increasing pressure due to climate change and water pollution. Decision makers are forced to select the most appropriate water management alternative with respect to multiple, conflicting criteria based on short and long term projections of water demand in the future. In this paper, we consider water management in Istanbul, a megacity with a population of 15 million. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a method combining demand forecasting with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods to evaluate five different water supply alternatives with respect to seven criteria using opinions of experts and stakeholders from different sectors. Methodology: To combine forecasting with MCDM, we design a data collection method in which we share our demand forecasts with our experts. For demand forecasting, we compare Holt-Winters, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (S-ARIMA), and feedforward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models and select S-ARIMA as the best forecasting model for monthly water consumption data. Generated demand projections are shared with experts from different sectors and collected data is evaluated with Fuzzy Theory using two distinct MCDM models: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE). Also our analyses are complemented with two sensitivity analyses. Findings: Our results indicate that greywater reuse is the best alternative to satisfy the growing water demand of the city whereas all experts find desalination and inter-basin water transfer as the least attractive solutions. In addition, we adopt the PROMETHEE GDSS procedure to obtain a GAIA plane indicating consensus among experts. Furthermore, we find that our results are moderately sensitive to the number of experts and they are insensitive to changes in experts’ evaluations. Novelty: To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first one incorporating water demand and supply management concepts into the evaluation of alternatives. From a methodological perspective, water demand projections have never been used in an MCDM study in the literature. Also, this paper contributes to the literature with a mathematical construction of consensus and Monte Carlo simulations for the sufficiency of experts consulted in a study.Article Robust HMM-Based Remaining Useful Life Estimation Using a Ridge-Regularized EM Algorithm(MDPI, 2026) Kucukdag, Halime Beyza; Kirkil, Gokhan; Hekimoglu, MustafaEstimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of engineering systems is crucial for maintenance planning and the reliability of complex mechanical units. Accurate RUL predictions support timely interventions and help to prevent unexpected failures. This study proposes a statistically robust framework that models degradation signals up to the end of life using a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a simple-failure structure and an absorbing terminal state. The proposed method estimates state-dependent linear emission parameters and transition probabilities using a ridge-regularized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The ridge penalty stabilizes slope estimates under limited data, while a robust Huber-based scale estimator reduces sensitivity to outliers in the sensor-derived health indicator. RUL is computed as a weighted expected time to absorption, combining transient-state survival characteristics with smoothed posterior-state probabilities obtained via the forward-backward algorithm. This yields a low-variance state-aware estimator that preserves the probabilistic structure of the HMM. Simulation studies show that the proposed ridge-regularized EM significantly reduces parameter variance and improves predictive accuracy compared with the baseline weighted least squares EM (WLS-EM). A real-data case analysis demonstrates further improvements in RUL estimation accuracy and smoother, more reliable prediction trajectories. Overall, the framework provides a robust and interpretable approach for practical prognostics applications.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance for Workforce and Service Optimization in the Automotive Sector(MDPI, 2025) Yildirim, Senda; Yucekaya, Ahmet Deniz; Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Ucal, Meltem; Aydin, Mehmet Nafiz; Kalafat, IremVehicle owners often use certified service centers throughout the warranty period, which usually extends for five years after buying. Nonetheless, after this timeframe concludes, a large number of owners turn to unapproved service providers, mainly motivated by financial factors. This change signifies a significant drop in income for automakers and their certified service networks. To tackle this issue, manufacturers utilize customer relationship management (CRM) strategies to enhance customer loyalty, usually depending on segmentation methods to pinpoint potential clients. However, conventional approaches frequently do not successfully forecast which clients are most likely to need or utilize maintenance services. This research introduces a machine learning-driven framework aimed at forecasting the probability of monthly maintenance attendance for customers by utilizing an extensive historical dataset that includes information about both customers and vehicles. Additionally, this predictive approach supports workforce planning and scheduling within after-sales service centers, aligning with AI-driven labor optimization frameworks such as those explored in the AI4LABOUR project. Four algorithms in machine learning-Decision Tree, Random Forest, LightGBM (LGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-were assessed for their forecasting capabilities. Of these, XGBoost showed greater accuracy and reliability in recognizing high-probability customers. In this study, we propose a machine learning framework to predict vehicle maintenance visits for after-sales services, leading to significant operational improvements. Furthermore, the integration of AI-driven workforce allocation strategies, as studied within the AI4LABOUR (reshaping labor force participation with artificial intelligence) project, has contributed to more efficient service personnel deployment, reducing idle time and improving customer experience. By implementing this approach, we achieved a 20% reduction in information delivery times during service operations. Additionally, survey completion times were reduced from 5 min to 4 min per survey, resulting in total time savings of approximately 5906 h by May 2024. The enhanced service appointment scheduling, combined with timely vehicle maintenance, also contributed to reducing potential accident risks. Moreover, the transition from a rule-based maintenance prediction system to a machine learning approach improved efficiency and accuracy. As a result of this transition, individual customer service visit rates increased by 30%, while corporate customer visits rose by 37%. This study contributes to ongoing research on AI-driven workforce planning and service optimization, particularly within the scope of the AI4LABOUR project.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 5Dual Sourcing Models With Stock-Out Dependent Substitution(Elsevier, 2023) Hekimoglu, Mustafa; Scheller-Wolf, AlanCompanies use different criteria such as lead time, cost and quality to evaluate suppliers; often using multiple suppliers with the aim of reducing stockout risk. But in many industries there may be significant differences between the quality levels of different suppliers. Thus quality-sensitive companies may prefer an item from a primary supplier, but be forced to accept substitute products of lesser quality in case of a stock-out. Motivated by an example in the aviation industry, we introduce a Dual Sourcing problem With Stock-out dependent substitution (DSWS) which includes quality differences. Due to nonconvexity of the multi-period model, analytical characterization of the optimal policy appears intractable. To overcome this problem, we prove a relation between the optimal cost of DSWS and costs of three other problems -dual sourcing without substitution and single sourcing problems with and without backlogging. This leads us to propose the use of the dual index policy (and a variant) as heuristics for DSWS, and to develop an algorithm for parameter optimization of our heuristics. Extensive numerical experiments show that the dual index policy outperforms all other candidate solutions from the literature by at least 8%. Our experiments show that the utilization of the back-up supplier leads to substantial cost savings and service rate increase, especially in case of high differences between holding cost rates of different quality items.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 3Optimum utilization of on-demand manufacturing and laser polishing in existence of supply disruption risk(Elsevier, 2022) Ulutan, Durul; Isler, Zulal; Kaya, Burak Erkan; Hekimoglu, Mustafa3D printing has moved from being a rapid prototyping tool to an additive manufacturing method within the last decade. Additive manufacturing can satisfy the need in dire situations where spare parts distribution is an issue but access to a 3D printer is much more likely and rapid than access to original parts. Managing inventories of spare parts can be tackled with more ease thanks to the reduced part types with additive manufacturing. While quality (in terms of reliability) of additively manufactured spare parts in terms of mechanical properties seem to be lower than original parts (particularly due to the inherent staircase appearance and the corresponding stress concentration zones that can lead to premature fatigue failure), use of post-processing subtractive techniques to correct such surface irregularities are found to improve reliability. While each process adds another layer of complexity to the cost minimization problem, demand uncertainty and risk of supply disruption represent the modern global problems faced recently. The problem tackled in this study is the joint optimization of the supply reliability considering the effect of laser polishing parameters and the demand uncertainty. In this problem, a condition of random breakdowns of identical products is considered. Also, the original supplier of machine components is subject to exogenous disruptions, such as strikes, raw material scarcity, or the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the optimum control policy with the right cost parameters was shown via numerical experiments originated from mathematical analyses. This optimality can be critical in managing the system in the best possible way, particularly during times of unforeseen circumstances such as pandemics. (C) 2022 Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of the NAMRI/SME.Article Citation - Scopus: 3Stock Price Forecasting Through Symbolic Dynamics and State Transition Graphs With a Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network Architecture(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2025) Mirza, F.K.; Pekcan, Ö.; Hekimoğlu, M.; Baykaş, T.Accurate stock price forecasting remains a critical challenge in financial analytics due to volatile market conditions, non-stationary dynamics, and abrupt regime shifts that often defy traditional modeling techniques. This study proposes a comprehensive framework for stock price forecasting that integrates symbolic dynamics, graph-based state representations, and deep learning. By converting continuous-valued stock prices into discrete symbolic states representing amplitude and trend information, the method constructs transition matrices capturing probabilistic relationships within financial time series. These transition matrices are then processed by a convolutional recurrent neural network (CRNN), in which convolutional layers isolate local spatial dependencies in the symbolic-state domain, while recurrent LSTM layers capture multi-scale temporal dynamics extending across multiple time horizons. Experimental evaluations are conducted over prediction horizons of 1 day, 10 days, and 100 days, spanning pre-COVID, COVID, and post-COVID market regimes. The results indicate that while longer prediction horizons naturally incur greater forecasting uncertainty due to compounding variability, the integration of symbolic-state preprocessing with deep temporal modeling demonstrates significant robustness in handling non-stationary financial environments. During the stable pre-COVID period, the proposed methodology achieves reductions in mean squared error (MSE) of up to 98% relative to the volatile COVID phase, highlighting its capability to effectively leverage well-defined market patterns in stable economic conditions. Furthermore, the model consistently delivers competitive forecasting performance across all prediction horizons and market regimes. Collectively, these findings emphasize the potential of symbolic-state-based deep learning architectures as a viable pathway to address the complexity and volatility characteristic of modern financial markets. © The Author(s) 2025.Article Yedek Parçaların Talebe Yönelik Eklemeli Üretiminde Lazer Cilalamanın Optimum Karar Verme Politikası Üzerinde Etkisi(2020) Hekimoğlu, Mustafa; Ulutan, DurulEklemeli imalatın yakınlarda bulunan bir 3D yazıcı kullanılarak sermaye ürünlerinin yedek parça ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak için kullanılması giderek yaygınlaşmaktadır. Böyle bir teknoloji, talebe-binaen parça üretimini mümkün kılarak arızaların rassallığı nedeniyle tutulan yedek parça envanterinin önemli bir kısmını ortadan kaldırma imkânı sunmaktadır. 3D yazıcı kullanımının en büyük sorunlarından biri olan basılı ve orijinal parçalar arasındaki kalite farkı, yüzey pürüzlülüğünü hafifleten ve ek maliyet terimi karşılığında parçaların güvenilirliğini artıran lazer parlatma kullanılarak azaltılabilir. Farklı parametreler kullanılarak, parçaların güvenilirliği, sermaye ürünlerinin ihtiyaçlarına ve sistemlerin durumuna göre değiştirilebilir. Bu çalışmada, basılı parçaların yüzey pürüzlülüğü ve güvenilirliğinin orijinal yedek parçaların envanter seviyeleri ile birlikte optimize edilmesi sorunu ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada, sınırlı bir planlama ufku üzerinde rastgele arızalara maruz kalan sabit sayıda özdeş makinadan oluşan bir üretim tesisi dikkate alınmıştır. Matematiksel analiz ve ayrıntılı sayısal deneyler kullanılarak, sistemin uygun maliyetli yönetimi için kritik olabilecek optimum kontrol politikası ve maliyet parametreleri arasındaki ilişki gösterilmiştir.Master Thesis Demand Classification for Spare Parts Supply Chains in the Presence of Three Dimensional Printers(Kadir Has Üniversitesi, 2022) İşler, Zülal; Hekimoğlu, MustafaThree-dimensional printers (3DPs) are currently the source of the supply chain and are used to ensure spare parts supply in case of shortages. However, the reliability of the part produced in 3DP is lower than the original part supplied by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM). Failure of parts creates demand and the failure probability of original and printed part is different than each other. Thus, knowing the total demand distribution have great importance in optimizing the order quantity given to the OEM in the presence of 3DPs. In this study, the demand distribution of system failures has been determined by using the distribution classification methods put forward by Ord (1967) and Adan et al. (1995). In line with the results, according to study of Ord(1967), demand distribution is found as Hypergeometric and Binomial distribution. Discrete distribution family of Adan et al. (1995) gives Binomial distribution for the system demand. All results are tested with chi-square test and likelihood ratio test.
