The Impact of Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Bank Credit

Abstract

This paper compares the effects of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit growth. Using a sample of 2439 banks from 19 countries for the period of 2010–2019, our findings indicate that economic uncertainty causes a significant decrease in overall bank credit growth while no such significant overall effect of geopolitical risks is documented. Further analysis on loan types shows that the highest negative impact of economic uncertainty is observed on corporate loans. Geopolitical risk, however, dampens consumer and mortgage loans. Additional analyses on bank heterogeneity reveal that the credit behavior of foreign and publicly listed banks are more immune to such risks.