What Drives the Return and Volatility Spillover Between Defis and Cryptocurrencies

Abstract

In this paper, we study the return and volatility connectedness between cryptocurrencies and DeFi Tokens, considering the impact of different uncertainty indices on their connectivity. Initially, we estimate a TVP-VAR model to obtain the total connectedness between the two markets. We find that returns on the cryptocurrencies transmit significantly larger shocks and, thus, are responsible for most variations in the majority of DeFis' returns. Then, to analyse the impact of uncertainty on total return and volatility connectedness, we use four factors, namely, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (ID-EMV) and Geopolitical Risks (GPR). We find that except for geopolitical risks, all three measures have a positive impact on return and volatility connectedness, while GPR exerts a negative impact. Finally, we provide implications for researchers, market participants and policymakers. © 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.