Supervised Learning-Driven Dead Band Control of Occupant Thermostats for Energy-Efficient Residential HVAC

Abstract

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems play a crucial role in demand-side management (DSM) by shaping residential electricity consumption and enabling flexible, grid-responsive operation. Thermostats in HVAC systems regulate indoor temperature as part of a closed-loop control framework, typically incorporating a fixed temperature dead band–a range around the setpoint where no action is taken–to reduce energy use and prevent frequent cycling of the HVAC system. Although essential for efficiency and equipment longevity, fixed dead bands limit adaptability, as dynamically adjusting them under varying environmental conditions remains challenging for occupants. To address this limitation, we propose a machine learning (ML)-based dead band tuning framework that optimally adjusts thermostat settings in real time. The method integrates conventional optimization with data-driven modeling: a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is first used to generate optimal dead band values under measured outdoor temperature records (diverse seasonal weather scenarios) which are then employed to train the ML-based predictor to learn a real-time discrete dead band decision policy that approximates the MILP-optimal hysteresis-aware decisions. Among the evaluated models, Random Forest demonstrates superior predictive performance, achieving a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0399 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 95.75 %. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd.