Browsing by Author "Demir, Ender"

Now showing 1 - 18 of 18

Citation Count: 22
Are Fan Tokens Fan Tokens?
(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2022) Ersan, Oğuz; Ersan, Oguz; Popesko, Boris
Fan tokens, digital assets providing privileges including rewards and promotions as well as voting rights in polls, recently became highly popular among the football clubs and the (fan) investors. Fan tokens differ from the stocks of football clubs with respect to ownership properties. Fan tokens might be associated with investor mood changes and reaction to match results. This paper aims to explore the impact of football match results on token prices of the clubs. We show that both the losses and wins in the most prestigious European tournament, UEFA Champions League affect the fan token abnormal returns, losses with an effect of a larger magnitude. Domestic matches and Europa League matches are not followed by similar reactions from the investors. Our results are robust to the use of alternative model specifications and various benchmark assets.
Citation Count: 29
Bank credit in uncertain times: Islamic vs. conventional banks
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Danışman, Gamze Öztürk; Demir, Ender; Tarazi, Amine
This paper explores whether the impact of economic uncertainty on credit growth differs for Islamic vs. conventional banks. Using a sample of 416 banks (58 Islamic and 358 conventional) in 12 countries, the findings indicate that an increase in economic uncertainty significantly decreases the credit growth of conventional banks but does not have any significant impact on Islamic banks’ credit growth. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and addressing endogeneity concerns using GMM estimators. We further observe that our findings are stronger for the following countries: (1) countries with explicit deposit insurance protection system for Islamic banks, (2) lower foreign dominance, and (3) countries with a higher share of deposits and assets in Islamic banks.
Citation Count: 45
Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses
(Elsevier, 2021) Demir, Ender; Danisman, Gamze Ozturk
This paper examines the impact of bank-specific factors and variations in the context of stringency of government policy responses on bank stock returns because of the COVID-19 pandemic. A sample of 1,927 publicly listed banks from 110 countries is used for the period of the first major wave of COVID-19, that is, January to May 2020. Our findings indicate that stock returns of banks with higher capitalization and deposits, more diversification, lower non-performing loans, and larger size are more resilient to the pandemic. While banks' environment and governance scores do not have a significant impact, higher social and corporate social responsibility strategy scores intensify the negative stock price reaction to COVID-19. We further observe that the pandemic induced reduction in bank stock prices is mitigated as the strictness of government policy responses increases, mainly through economic responses such as income support, debt and contract relief, and fiscal measures from governments.
Citation Count: 18
Connectedness among fan tokens and stocks of football clubs
(Elsevier, 2022) Ersan, Oğuz; Demir, Ender; Assaf, Ata
This paper examines the dynamic connectedness among the fan tokens and their corresponding stocks using the TVP-VAR approach. We use daily data from December 11, 2020, to January 31, 2022, for the Juventus FC, AS Roma, Galatasaray, and Trabzonspor tokens and stocks. Our results indicate that shocks transmitted to any token are larger than the ones to the stocks, with the tokens being the net transmitters of shocks to both the tokens and stocks. Then, our results indicate that the two asset classes are considered independent of each other, with the total connectedness decreasing over time, and indicating that less than 10% of the contributions in any token (stock) is from the stocks (remaining stocks). This implies that the idiosyncratic contri-butions to the variations in the utilized group of assets are considerably low when compared to the system contributions. Finally, we provide some implications for investment and portfolio management.
Citation Count: 3
Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens
(Elsevier, 2024) Ersan, Oğuz; Demir, Ender; Ersan, Oguz
We focus on the existence of bubbles in fan tokens, utilizing the Supremum Augmented DickeyFuller (SADF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey -Fuller (GSADF) tests. We use daily closing prices of the top 20 fan tokens according to their market capitalization, along with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chiliz. The evidence from the GSADF test results indicates that the prices of 13 out of 20 fan tokens and the three cryptocurrencies have explosive periods associated with bubbles. Our results also show that the percentage of bubble days is between 0 % and 5% for all fan tokens. Among the 13 fan tokens exhibiting bubble behavior in their prices, nine have multiple sub -periods associated with bubbles, while only four tokens have a single sub -period with explosive prices. Bubbles in token prices are short-lived bubbles; most last for a few days. As a robustness analysis, we also perform LPPLS (Log -Periodic Power Law Singularity), providing similar results. Further analysis shows that trading volume, fan token return, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility (EMVID) are positively associated with the presence of bubbles in fan token prices, while oil return is negatively associated with bubbles.
Citation Count: 44
Economic Policy Uncertainty And Bank Credit Growth: Evidence From European Banks
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Ersan, Oğuz; Ersan, Oğuz; Demir, Ender
Using a sample of 2977 private and listed banks in the EU-5 countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, France) for the years 2009–2018, this paper explores the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on credit growth. Using panel data fixed effects methodology and controlling for endogeneity using two-step difference GMM estimators, our findings indicate that uncertainty in economic policies hampers the credit growth of European banks. Our bank type-based analyses indicate that the effect is mainly valid for cooperative banks. Additional analyses imply that the negative impact of EPU on credit growth is more pronounced in civil law countries, increases with debt maturity, and weakens for banks with a larger number of employees and branches. Furthermore, the unfavorable effects are stronger in well-capitalized banks, banks with foreign subsidiaries, and banks with a higher share of wholesale funding. We also provide several policy implications for different economic actors.
Citation Count: 45
Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking
(Elsevier Science Inc, 2021) Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin; Danisman, Gamze Ozturk; Demir, Ender; Tarazi, Amine
In this paper, we explore whether economic uncertainty differently affects the default risk of Islamic and conventional banks. Using a sample of 568 banks from 20 countries between 2009 and 2018, we use the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) by Ahir et al. (2018) to conduct a study based on a comparable measure across countries. Our findings indicate that economic uncertainty increases the default risk of conventional banks but does not affect Islamic banks' default risk. To understand why, we explore the influence of religiosity, institutional factors, and bank-level heterogeneity. We observe that Islamic banks' default risk is not significantly affected by uncertainty in all types of countries, but such a difference with conventional banks mainly holds for banks with higher income diversification, larger size, and that are publicly traded. Moreover, our findings show that conventional banks suffer more from uncertainty in terms of stability in countries with higher religiosity and with a higher share of profit-loss sharing (PLS) contracts. Our results are robust to alternative estimation techniques to deal with endogeneity and to alternative variable measurements.
Citation Count: 49
The effect of European and global uncertainty on stock returns of travel and leisure companies
(Sage Publications Ltd, 2019) Ersan, Oğuz; Akron, Sagi; Demir, Ender
This article aims to evaluate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure Price Index by utilizing a monthly data set for 20 years through 1997-2016. It is found that both the European and the global EPU have significant negative effects on the stock returns of travel and leisure companies. We demonstrate the significantly superior forecasting power of EPU measures on tourism and leisure stock returns relative to a rather weak forecasting power of various macroeconomic variables.
Citation Count: 1
The Effect of Pandemics on Domestic Credit: A Cross-country Analysis
(Economics Bulletin, 2021) Danisman, Gamze Ozturk; Demir, Ender
Using a panel of 140 countries covering the period 1996-2018, this paper examines how previous pandemics (such as SARS, MERS, Ebola, Swine flu, etc.) have influenced the lending behavior of banks. We take advantage of a new index developed by Ahir et al. (2020) which measures discussions about pandemics at the country level. Our findings reveal that uncertainty related to pandemics significantly hamper domestic credit available to the private sector. The negative effect of pandemics on credit levels is more prevalent for the low-income & emerging economies and non-OECD countries.
Citation Count: 9
ESG performance and dividend payout: A channel analysis
(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2023) Bilyay-Erdogan, Seda; Danisman, Gamze Ozturk; Demir, Ender
This paper investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance on corporate dividend policy. We employ a panel data set comprised of 1094 non-financial listed firms in 21 European countries from 2002 to 2019. We show that companies with higher ESG performance are likely to pay higher dividends. Our results are robust to alternative variable definitions and specifications and address endogeneity concerns. We next investigate the possible transmission channels through which corporate ESG performance enhances dividend payouts. We present novel evidence that earnings and risk are the two possible channels through which ESG performance augments corporate dividends.
Citation Count: 6
ESG performance and investment efficiency: The impact of information asymmetry
(Elsevier, 2024) Bilyay-Erdogan, Seda; Danisman, Gamze Ozturk; Demir, Ender
This paper investigates the relationship between firms' engagement in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities and corporate investment efficiency, using 1,094 firms from 21 countries in Europe, covering the years 2002-2019. We conduct our estimations using fixed effects panel data techniques and address potential endogeneity with instrumental variables (IV) estimations. We provide evidence that overall ESG engagement is positively and significantly associated with investment efficiency. Analyzing overinvestment and underinvestment scenarios shows that ESG engagement decreases only overinvestment problems. Within the underinvestment scenario, we observe that ESG engagement is beneficial only for firms with higher information asymmetries. Thus, information asymmetry matters in the underinvestment case. We next show that four firm-level channels-information asymmetry, financial constraints, cash flows, and risk-link ESG performance to investment inefficiency. Additional analysis shows that firms with extreme ESG scores (i.e., very low and very high) do not experience significant reductions in investment inefficiency. Altogether, our findings draw attention to the critical role of ESG performance and information asymmetry in determining corporate investment efficiency.
Citation Count: 24
FINANCIAL RESILIENCE TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE ROLE OF BANKING MARKET STRUCTURE
(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, 2021-03) Danışman, Gamze Öztürk; Demir, Ender; Zaremba, Adam
This article examines whether differences in banking market structures across countries influence the local stock market resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a sample of 66 countries for the period January 2020 to July 2020, our findings demonstrate that countries with more concentrated banking systems, with a higher presence of foreign banks, and a higher share of Islamic banks are more resilient to the pandemic. Considering the banking regulatory differences between countries, we observe that equity markets of countries with stricter regulatory requirements on capital and liquidity are more resilient to the COVID-19. Finally, regarding banking sector performance indicators, our findings show that while stock reactions of countries with more stable banking systems are more resilient to the pandemic; countries with more credit to deposit ratio, overhead costs, high provisions and nonperforming loans are more vulnerable. Our findings provide important implications for policymakers, regulatory bodies and investors.
Citation Count: 34
The impact of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit
(Elsevier Inc., 2021) Demir, Ender; Danışman, Gamze Öztürk
This paper compares the effects of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks on bank credit growth. Using a sample of 2439 banks from 19 countries for the period of 2010–2019, our findings indicate that economic uncertainty causes a significant decrease in overall bank credit growth while no such significant overall effect of geopolitical risks is documented. Further analysis on loan types shows that the highest negative impact of economic uncertainty is observed on corporate loans. Geopolitical risk, however, dampens consumer and mortgage loans. Additional analyses on bank heterogeneity reveal that the credit behavior of foreign and publicly listed banks are more immune to such risks.
Citation Count: 42
Loan loss provisioning of US banks: Economic policy uncertainty and discretionary behavior
(Elsevier Inc, 2021) Öztürk Danışman, Gamze; Demir, Ender; Ozili, Peterson K.
This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on loan loss provisions (LLP). Using a sample of 6384 US banks and yearly data from 2009 to 2019 and addressing endogeneity (GMM and IV estimations), the findings reveal that in times of higher economic policy uncertainty, banks tend to increase their loan loss provisioning. Considering the four components of EPU, the findings document that the majority of the explanatory power on loan loss provisions originates from news-based and tax expiration indices. Moreover, US banks discretionally use loan loss provisions in normal times, especially for capital management and income smoothing. In uncertain times, they use provisions for income smoothing rather than capital management and after controlling for the discretionary behavior, the positive relationship of EPU and LLPs continue to hold. Additional analysis indicates that private banks conduct more income smoothing through provisions in uncertain times as compared to listed banks. The findings of the study highlight EPU as an additional procyclical factor to influence bank provisioning behavior and offer some relevant policy implications.
Citation Count: 8
Rental Price Convergence In A Developing Economy: New Evidence From Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test
(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2010) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Demir, Ender; Astrauskiene, Nijole
We examine the hypothesis of nonlinear rental price convergence using relative rental price index of three major cities of Turkey namely Istanbul Izmir and Ankara span from the period from January 1994 to February 2010. Our results indicate that all cities exhibit rental price convergence towards its national mean level for the period of January 1994 to December 2004. In contrast none of the cities show evidence of convergence from January 2005 to February 2010. The evidence clearly shows rental price divergence in Turkish property market.
Citation Count: 8
The Turkish handmade carpet industry: an analysis in comparison with select Asian countries
(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2011) Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Demir, Ender; Lau, Marco Chi Keung; To, Chester Kin-Man; Zhang, Zhi-Ming
The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the Turkish handmade carpet industry and to compare it with select Far East countries. In particular the Turkish handmade carpet industry is compared with the handmade carpet industries of Iran India China Afghanistan Pakistan and Nepal. In this context the determinants of handmade carpets in the US market are analyzed empirically. Our results show that the Turkish handmade carpet industry has been experiencing a period of recession in the past decade. Through the relative comparative advantage (RCA) index and the Kreinin-Finger similarity (KFS) index we observed that the RCA index for Turkey indicates that Turkey's RCA has been declining since 1992. However despite this decline the RCA of Turkey was above that of other countries until 1997. But after this the advantage disappeared eventually and was gained by Iran. During this period the other competitors of Turkey showed small increases. Furthermore the empirical results from the gravity model suggests that a 10% real depreciation/appreciation of the US dollar against foreign currency leads to a 0.2% decrease/increase in imports. This finding suggests relatively low exchange rate import pass-through in carpet commodity. The results also support the Linder hypothesis that countries with similar preferences and demand structures will tend to trade more.
Citation Count: 0
What drives the return and volatility spillover between DeFis and cryptocurrencies?
(Wiley, 2024) Ersan, Oğuz; Demir, Ender; Ersan, Oguz
In this paper, we study the return and volatility connectedness between cryptocurrencies and DeFi Tokens, considering the impact of different uncertainty indices on their connectivity. Initially, we estimate a TVP-VAR model to obtain the total connectedness between the two markets. We find that returns on the cryptocurrencies transmit significantly larger shocks and, thus, are responsible for most variations in the majority of DeFis' returns. Then, to analyse the impact of uncertainty on total return and volatility connectedness, we use four factors, namely, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (ID-EMV) and Geopolitical Risks (GPR). We find that except for geopolitical risks, all three measures have a positive impact on return and volatility connectedness, while GPR exerts a negative impact. Finally, we provide implications for researchers, market participants and policymakers.
Citation Count: 5
Where do tourism tokens travel to and from?
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2023) Ersan, Oğuz; Demir, Ender; Ersan, Oguz
This study aims to identify the sources of spillovers affecting tourism tokens and classify the type of assets to which they correspond. Using daily data for different asset classes from June 2018 through November 2022, we employ a TVP-VAR methodology to test the connectedness between two tourism tokens, two leading travel equity indices, and the two dominant cryptocurrencies, namely, Bitcoin and Ethereum. The findings show that tourism tokens are relatively independent of fluctuations in the traditional sources affecting the travel and leisure sector, such as the U.S. dollar, the price of oil, or travel equity indices. These results hint that tourism tokens are more closely related to cryptocurrencies rather than pure travel goods. The results may help decision-makers in the travel and hospitality industries considering the use of tourism tokens identify the potential forces impacting them.