A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: Insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero Emission targets
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Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier Ltd
Abstract
The power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, and its connections with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze a feasible decarbonization scenario for Türkiye, with a particular focus on the power sector. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential for renewables, Türkiye can achieve a coal-phase out by early 2030s, alongside a trajectory towards a full-fledged fossil fuel phase-out in power generation. The results also indicate that while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand can be maintained and the carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to 2018 levels. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd
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Keywords
Applied general equilibrium, Coal phase-out, Electricity market simulation model, Energy storage technologies, Fossil fuel phase-out, Generation expansion planning, Linear programming, Türkiye's power generation sector
Turkish CoHE Thesis Center URL
Citation
0
WoS Q
Q1
Scopus Q
N/A
Source
Energy
Volume
302